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<article article-type="research-article" dtd-version="1.3" xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance" xml:lang="ru"><front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">microbe</journal-id><journal-title-group><journal-title xml:lang="ru">Проблемы особо опасных инфекций</journal-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>Problems of Particularly Dangerous Infections</trans-title></trans-title-group></journal-title-group><issn pub-type="ppub">0370-1069</issn><issn pub-type="epub">2658-719X</issn><publisher><publisher-name>Russian Research Anti-Plague Institute “Microbe”</publisher-name></publisher></journal-meta><article-meta><article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.21055/0370-1069-2019-1-64-73</article-id><article-id custom-type="elpub" pub-id-type="custom">microbe-1126</article-id><article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Research Article</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="ru"><subject>ОБЗОРЫ</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="en"><subject>REVIEWS</subject></subj-group></article-categories><title-group><article-title>Прогноз по холере на 2019 г. на основании анализа эпидемиологической обстановки в мире, СНГ и России в 2009–2018 гг.</article-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>Cholera Forecast for the Year 2019 Based on Assessment of Epidemiological Situation Around the World, Across CIS and Russia in 2009–2018</trans-title></trans-title-group></title-group><contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Москвитина</surname><given-names>Э. А.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Moskvitina</surname><given-names>E. A.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>Российская Федерация, 344002, Ростов-на-Дону, ул. М.Горького, 117/40</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>117/40, M.Gor`kogo St., Rostov-on-Don, 344002, Russian Federation</p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">plague@aaanet.ru</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Янович</surname><given-names>Е. Г.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Yanovich</surname><given-names>E. G.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>Российская Федерация, 344002, Ростов-на-Дону, ул. М.Горького, 117/40</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>117/40, M.Gor`kogo St., Rostov-on-Don, 344002, Russian Federation</p></bio><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Кругликов</surname><given-names>В. Д.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Kruglikov</surname><given-names>V. D.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>Российская Федерация, 344002, Ростов-на-Дону, ул. М.Горького, 117/40</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>117/40, M.Gor`kogo St., Rostov-on-Don, 344002, Russian Federation</p></bio><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Титова</surname><given-names>С. В.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Titova</surname><given-names>S. V.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>Российская Федерация, 344002, Ростов-на-Дону, ул. М.Горького, 117/40</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>117/40, M.Gor`kogo St., Rostov-on-Don, 344002, Russian Federation</p></bio><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Куриленко</surname><given-names>М. П.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Kurilenko</surname><given-names>M. L.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>Российская Федерация, 344002, Ростов-на-Дону, ул. М.Горького, 117/40</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>117/40, M.Gor`kogo St., Rostov-on-Don, 344002, Russian Federation</p></bio><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Пичурина</surname><given-names>Н. Л.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Pichurina</surname><given-names>N. L.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>Российская Федерация, 344002, Ростов-на-Дону, ул. М.Горького, 117/40</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>117/40, M.Gor`kogo St., Rostov-on-Don, 344002, Russian Federation</p></bio><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Водопьянов</surname><given-names>А. С.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Vodop’yanov</surname><given-names>A. S.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>Российская Федерация, 344002, Ростов-на-Дону, ул. М.Горького, 117/40</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>117/40, M.Gor`kogo St., Rostov-on-Don, 344002, Russian Federation</p></bio><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Левченко</surname><given-names>Д. А.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Levchenko</surname><given-names>D. A.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>Российская Федерация, 344002, Ростов-на-Дону, ул. М.Горького, 117/40</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>117/40, M.Gor`kogo St., Rostov-on-Don, 344002, Russian Federation</p></bio><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Иванова</surname><given-names>С. М.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Ivanova</surname><given-names>S. M.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>Российская Федерация, 127490, Москва, ул. Мусоргского, 4</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>4, Musorgskogo St., Moscow, 127490, Russian Federation</p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">protivochym@nln.ru</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-2"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Водопьянов</surname><given-names>С. О.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Vodop’yanov</surname><given-names>S. O.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>Российская Федерация, 344002, Ростов-на-Дону, ул. М.Горького, 117/40</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>117/40, M.Gor`kogo St., Rostov-on-Don, 344002, Russian Federation</p></bio><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Олейников</surname><given-names>И. П.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Oleynikov</surname><given-names>I. P.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>Российская Федерация, 344002, Ростов-на-Дону, ул. М.Горького, 117/40</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>117/40, M.Gor`kogo St., Rostov-on-Don, 344002, Russian Federation</p></bio><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib></contrib-group><aff-alternatives id="aff-1"><aff xml:lang="ru"><institution>ФКУЗ «Ростовский-на-Дону научно-исследовательский противочумный институт»</institution><country>Россия</country></aff><aff xml:lang="en"><institution>Rostov-on-Don Research Anti-Plague Institute of Rospotrebnadzor</institution><country>Russian Federation</country></aff></aff-alternatives><aff-alternatives id="aff-2"><aff xml:lang="ru"><institution>ФКУЗ «Противочумный центр»</institution><country>Россия</country></aff><aff xml:lang="en"><institution>Plague Control Center of the Rospotrebnadzor</institution><country>Russian Federation</country></aff></aff-alternatives><pub-date pub-type="collection"><year>2019</year></pub-date><pub-date pub-type="epub"><day>02</day><month>04</month><year>2019</year></pub-date><volume>0</volume><issue>1</issue><fpage>64</fpage><lpage>73</lpage><permissions><copyright-statement>Copyright &amp;#x00A9; Москвитина Э.А., Янович Е.Г., Кругликов В.Д., Титова С.В., Куриленко М.П., Пичурина Н.Л., Водопьянов А.С., Левченко Д.А., Иванова С.М., Водопьянов С.О., Олейников И.П., 2019</copyright-statement><copyright-year>2019</copyright-year><copyright-holder xml:lang="ru">Москвитина Э.А., Янович Е.Г., Кругликов В.Д., Титова С.В., Куриленко М.П., Пичурина Н.Л., Водопьянов А.С., Левченко Д.А., Иванова С.М., Водопьянов С.О., Олейников И.П.</copyright-holder><copyright-holder xml:lang="en">Moskvitina E.A., Yanovich E.G., Kruglikov V.D., Titova S.V., Kurilenko M.L., Pichurina N.L., Vodop’yanov A.S., Levchenko D.A., Ivanova S.M., Vodop’yanov S.O., Oleynikov I.P.</copyright-holder><license xml:lang="ru" license-type="creative-commons-attribution" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" xlink:type="simple"><license-p>Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.</license-p></license><license xml:lang="en" license-type="creative-commons-attribution" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" xlink:type="simple"><license-p>This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.</license-p></license></permissions><self-uri xlink:href="https://journal.microbe.ru/jour/article/view/1126">https://journal.microbe.ru/jour/article/view/1126</self-uri><abstract><p>Проведен анализ заболеваемости холерой в период 2009–2018 гг. Выявлена тенденция роста в динамике заболеваемости в мире (относительно 2009 г.) со средним ежегодным темпом прироста – 5,352 %. В 2017 г., впервые за период 7-й пандемии, вызванной V. cholerae O1 El Tor, по данным ВОЗ , количество больных превысило 1 млн человек (1227391), из них 84,1 % (1032481) пришлось на Йемен, где продолжается война и одна из крупнейших в мире эпидемий. Имели место трансграничные эпидемиологические осложнения в ряде стран Африки. Сохраняются эндемичные очаги в странах Азии, Африки и Карибского бассейна. При эпидемиологическом надзоре в России из поверхностных водоемов изолировано 744 штамма V. cholerae О1 биовара Эль Тор ctxA– tcpA–, ctxA– tcpA+ и V. cholerae О139 ctxA– и tcpA– , а также единичные V. cholerae О1 биовара Эль Тор ctxA+ tcpA+. По данным INDEL- и ПЦР -генотипирования установлено выделение штаммов с идентичными и новыми генотипами. Для прогноза на 2019 г. проведена оценка риска активизации (продолжения) эпидемического процесса при холере в мире с учетом ЧС различного происхождения и факторов риска. Прогноз по холере на глобальном уровне и в России на 2019 г. – неблагоприятный.</p></abstract><trans-abstract xml:lang="en"><p>Analysis of cholera incidence for the period of 2009–2018 was performed. The upward tendency in the morbidity rate dynamics around the world (compared to 2009) with an average annual growth rate of 5,352 % was revealed. For the first time during the 7th pandemic caused by V. cholerae O1 El Tor, WHO reported 1227391 cases of cholera world-wide in 2017, out of which 1032481 (84.1%) were registered in Yemen, where the war continues and one of the largest epidemics in the world. There have been cross-border epidemiological complications in several African countries. Endemic foci continue to exist and spread in Asia, Africa and the Caribbean. Under the epidemiological surveillance in Russia, 744 strains of V. cholerae El Tor – ctxA– tcpA–, ctxA– tcpA+ and V. cholerae О139 ctxA– and tcpA– were isolated from the surface water bodies, as well as single strains of El Tor ctxA+ tcpA+. As a result of INDEL- and  PCR-genotyping, the isolation of strains with identical genotypes and new ones was established. To make the prognosis for 2019, the risk of activation (continuation) of the cholera epidemic process in the world was assessed, taking into account emergencies of different origin and risk factors. The cholera forecast at the global level and in  Russia for 2019 is unfavorable.</p></trans-abstract><kwd-group xml:lang="ru"><kwd>холера</kwd><kwd>эпидемия</kwd><kwd>заносы</kwd><kwd>эндемичные территории</kwd><kwd>V. cholerae O1</kwd><kwd>прогноз</kwd></kwd-group><kwd-group xml:lang="en"><kwd>cholera</kwd><kwd>epidemic</kwd><kwd>importation</kwd><kwd>endemic areas</kwd><kwd>V. cholerae O1</kwd><kwd>forecast</kwd></kwd-group></article-meta></front><back><ref-list><title>References</title><ref id="cit1"><label>1</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Cholera prevention and control. Seventy-first world health assembly, Agenda item 11.2. 26 May 2018 [Электронный ресурс]. URL: http://apps.who.int/gb/ebwha/pdf_files/WHA71/A71_R4-en.pdf (дата обращения 23.10.2018 г.).</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Cholera prevention and control. Seventy-first world health assembly, Agenda item 11.2. 26 May 2018 [Internet]. 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