microbeПроблемы особо опасных инфекцийProblems of Particularly Dangerous Infections0370-10692658-719XRussian Research Anti-Plague Institute “Microbe”10.21055/0370-1069-2020-2-38-47microbe-1317Research ArticleОБЗОРЫREVIEWSХолера: мониторинг эпидемиологической обстановки в мире и России (2010–2019 гг.). Прогноз на 2020 г.Cholera: Monitoring of Epidemiological Situation around the World and in Russia (2010–2019). Forecast for 2020МосквитинаЭ. А.MoskvitinaE. A.

Москвитина Эльза Афанасьевна

344002, Ростов-на-Дону, ул. М.Горького, 117/40

Elza A. Moskvitina

117/40, M.Gor`kogoSt., Rostov-on-Don, 344002

Elza_epid@mail.ruЯновичЕ. Г.YanovichE. G.

117/40, M.Gor`kogoSt., Rostov-on-Don, 344002

plague@aaanet.ruКуриленкоМ. Л.KurilenkoM. I.

117/40, M.Gor`kogoSt., Rostov-on-Don, 344002

plague@aaanet.ruКругликовВ. Д.KruglikovV. D.

117/40, M.Gor`kogoSt., Rostov-on-Don, 344002

plague@aaanet.ruТитоваС. В.TitovaS. V.

117/40, M.Gor`kogoSt., Rostov-on-Don, 344002

plague@aaanet.ruЛевченкоД. А.LevchenkoD. A.

117/40, M.Gor`kogoSt., Rostov-on-Don, 344002

plague@aaanet.ruВодопьяновА. С.Vodop’yanovA. S.

117/40, M.Gor`kogoSt., Rostov-on-Don, 344002

plague@aaanet.ruЛопатинА. А.LopatinA. A.

4, Musorgskogo St., Moscow, 1274

protivochym@nln.ruИвановаС. М.IvanovaS. M.

4, Musorgskogo St., Moscow, 1274

protivochym@nln.ruМишанькинБ. М.Mishan’kinB. M.

117/40, M.Gor`kogoSt., Rostov-on-Don, 344002

plague@aaanet.ruКривенкоА. С.KrivenkoA. S.

117/40, M.Gor`kogoSt., Rostov-on-Don, 344002

plague@aaanet.ruАнисимоваГ. Б.AnisimovaG. B.

117/40, M.Gor`kogoSt., Rostov-on-Don, 344002

plague@aaanet.ruНосковА. К.NoskovA. K.plague@aaanet.ruФКУЗ «Ростовский-на-Дону научно-исследовательский противочумный институт»,РоссияRostov-on-Don Research Anti-Plague InstituteRussian FederationФКУЗ «Противочумный центр»РоссияPlague Control CenterRussian Federation202011072020023847Copyright © Москвитина Э.А., Янович Е.Г., Куриленко М.Л., Кругликов В.Д., Титова С.В., Левченко Д.А., Водопьянов А.С., Лопатин А.А., Иванова С.М., Мишанькин Б.М., Кривенко А.С., Анисимова Г.Б., Носков А.К., 20202020Москвитина Э.А., Янович Е.Г., Куриленко М.Л., Кругликов В.Д., Титова С.В., Левченко Д.А., Водопьянов А.С., Лопатин А.А., Иванова С.М., Мишанькин Б.М., Кривенко А.С., Анисимова Г.Б., Носков А.К.Moskvitina E.A., Yanovich E.G., Kurilenko M.I., Kruglikov V.D., Titova S.V., Levchenko D.A., Vodop’yanov A.S., Lopatin A.A., Ivanova S.M., Mishan’kin B.M., Krivenko A.S., Anisimova G.B., Noskov A.K.Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://journal.microbe.ru/jour/article/view/1317

Цель– мониторинг распространения холеры в мире, странах СНГ и Российской Федерации с оценкой рисков и чрезвычайных ситуаций, способствующих активизации эпидемического процесса. Несмотря на тенденцию к снижению в динамике заболеваемости холерой в мире, за период с 2010 по 2019 год эпидемии и крупные вспышки имели место в 96 странах мира. ВОЗ информировала о 2013 импортированных случаях холеры в страны Азии, Америки, в том числе Карибского бассейна, Европы и Австралии с Океанией. В 24 странах выявлены эндемичные по холере административные территории. По данным ВОЗ, снижение уровня заболеваемости холерой в Азии и Африке связано с проведением широкомасштабной вакцинации. При эпидемиологическом надзоре за холерой из поверхностных водоемов в 26 субъектах Российской Федерации изолировано 705 штаммов V. cholerae O1, о139 серогрупп, в том числе V. cholerae O1 ctxA+tcpA+– 10, V. cholerae O1 ctxA–tcpA+ – 35, V. cholerae O1 ctxA–tcpA–– 655 и V. cholerae O139 ctxA–tcpA–– 5. Выявление штаммов с уникальными и ранее не встречающимися INDEL-генотипами свидетельствует об их заносном происхождении. Прогноз по холере в мире на 2020 г. с учетом установленной высокой степени активизации эпидемического процесса за счет социальных и природных рисков, обусловленных чрезвычайными ситуациями различного происхождения, наличия эндемичных очагов, завоза инфекции и других факторов риска, – неблагоприятный. Для России прогноз по холере определяется наличием внешних рисков, обусловленных продолжением седьмой пандемии, возможных завозов инфекции в субъекты страны, различные по типам эпидемических проявлений. 

Objective of the study was to monitor the spread of cholera in the world, in the CIS countries and in Russia with an assessment of risks and emergencies that contribute to the activation of the epidemic process. Despite the downward trend in the global incidence rate of cholera during the period between 2010 and 2019, epidemics and major outbreaks occurred in 96 countries. WHO has reported 2013 imported cases of cholera to countries in Asia, the Americas, including the Caribbean, Europe, and Australia with Oceania; cholera-endemic administrative territories are identified in 24 countries. According to WHO, cholera burden reduction in Asia and Africa is associated with large-scale vaccination. During epidemiological surveillance of cholera, 705 strains of V. cholerae O1 and O139 serogroups were isolated from surface reservoirs in 26 constituent entities of the Russian Federation, including 10 strains of V. cholerae O1 ctxA+tcpA+, 35 strains of V. cholerae O1 ctxA–tcpA+, 655 strains of V. cholerae O1 ctxA–tcpA– , and five strains of V. cholerae O139 ctxA–tcpA–. Identification of strains with unique, previously unknown INDEL genotypes testifies to their imported nature. The forecast for cholera in the world for 2020, given the proven high degree of epidemic process activation at the expense of social and environmental risks caused by emergencies of different origin, the presence of endemic foci, infection import and other risk factors is unfavorable. For Russia, the forecast for cholera will be determined by the presence of external risks created by the ongoing 7-th pandemic, possible importation of infection to constituent entities of the Russian Federation that differ by the types of epidemic manifestations.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.