microbeПроблемы особо опасных инфекцийProblems of Particularly Dangerous Infections0370-10692658-719XRussian Research Anti-Plague Institute “Microbe”10.21055/0370-1069-2021-1-43-51microbe-1437Research ArticleОБЗОРЫREVIEWSХарактеристика эпидемиологической ситуации по холере в мире и в Российской Федерации в 2020 г. и прогноз на 2021 г.Characteristics of the Epidemiological Situation on Cholera in the World and in the Russian Federation in 2020 and Forecast for 2021https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0550-2221НосковА. К.NoskovA. K.

344002, Ростов-на-Дону, ул. М. Горького, 117/40

117/40, M. Gor`kogo St., Rostov-on-Don, 344002

https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6540-2778КругликовВ. Д.KruglikovV. D.

344002, Ростов-на-Дону, ул. М. Горького, 117/40

117/40, M. Gor`kogo St., Rostov-on-Don, 344002

plague@aaanet.ruhttps://orcid.org/0000-0001-5020-1466МосквитинаЭ. А.MoskvitinaE. A.

344002, Ростов-на-Дону, ул. М. Горького, 117/40

117/40, M. Gor`kogo St., Rostov-on-Don, 344002

https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9216-7777МонаховаЕ. В.MonakhovaE. V.

344002, Ростов-на-Дону, ул. М. Горького, 117/40

117/40, M. Gor`kogo St., Rostov-on-Don, 344002

https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5073-2918ЛевченкоД. А.LevchenkoD. A.

344002, Ростов-на-Дону, ул. М. Горького, 117/40

117/40, M. Gor`kogo St., Rostov-on-Don, 344002

https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7571-7848ЯновичЕ. Г.YanovichE. G.

344002, Ростов-на-Дону, ул. М. Горького, 117/40

117/40, M. Gor`kogo St., Rostov-on-Don, 344002

https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9056-3231ВодопьяновА. С.Vodop’yanovA. S.

344002, Ростов-на-Дону, ул. М. Горького, 117/40

117/40, M. Gor`kogo St., Rostov-on-Don, 344002

https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7178-8021ПисановР. В.PisanovR. V.

344002, Ростов-на-Дону, ул. М. Горького, 117/40

117/40, M. Gor`kogo St., Rostov-on-Don, 344002

https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0868-6791НепомнящаяН. Б.NepomnyashchayaN. B.

344002, Ростов-на-Дону, ул. М. Горького, 117/40

117/40, M. Gor`kogo St., Rostov-on-Don, 344002

https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4254-3313ЕжоваМ. И.EzhovaM. I.

344002, Ростов-на-Дону, ул. М. Горького, 117/40

117/40, M. Gor`kogo St., Rostov-on-Don, 344002

https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9996-4189ПодойницынаО. А.PodoinitsynaO. A.

344002, Ростов-на-Дону, ул. М. Горького, 117/40

117/40, M. Gor`kogo St., Rostov-on-Don, 344002

ФКУЗ «Ростовский-на-Дону научно-исследовательский противочумный институт»РоссияRostov-on-Don Research Anti-Plague InstituteRussian Federation202114042021014351Copyright © Носков А.К., Кругликов В.Д., Москвитина Э.А., Монахова Е.В., Левченко Д.А., Янович Е.Г., Водопьянов А.С., Писанов Р.В., Непомнящая Н.Б., Ежова М.И., Подойницына О.А., 20212021Носков А.К., Кругликов В.Д., Москвитина Э.А., Монахова Е.В., Левченко Д.А., Янович Е.Г., Водопьянов А.С., Писанов Р.В., Непомнящая Н.Б., Ежова М.И., Подойницына О.А.Noskov A.K., Kruglikov V.D., Moskvitina E.A., Monakhova E.V., Levchenko D.A., Yanovich E.G., Vodop’yanov A.S., Pisanov R.V., Nepomnyashchaya N.B., Ezhova M.I., Podoinitsyna O.A.Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://journal.microbe.ru/jour/article/view/1437

Цель работы – на основе данных мониторинга и анализа заболеваемости в мире за период 2011–2020 гг. дать оценку эпидемиологической ситуации по холере в 2020 г. и прогноз на 2021 г. За период с 2011 по 2020 год в 97 странах мира зарегистрировано 4413988 случаев холеры с общей тенденцией к снижению заболеваемости (коэффициент достоверности аппроксимации R2  – 0,5705). Однако в связи с продолжением эпидемических проявлений холеры в эндемичных странах Азии, Африки и Америки эпидемиологическая ситуация по холере на этих континентах в 2020 г. характеризовалась как неблагополучная. Отмечено появление среди эпидемически опасных штаммов Vibrio cholerae О1 новой, «постгаитянской» линии. В 2020 г. на территории РФ эпидемически опасных штаммов V. cholerae О1, О139 от людей не выделено. Из объектов окружающей среды изолировано 25 нетоксигенных штаммов V. cholerae О1 El Tor, восемь из которых (ctxА-, tcpА+), по данным ПЦР-INDEL-типирования и SNP-анализа сиквенсов, принадлежали к клональному комплексу. Результаты анализа биологических свойств и филогенетических связей между выделенными нетоксигенными штаммами являются основой для оценки эпидемиологической ситуации по холере в России в 2020 г. как стабильной и аналогичного прогноза ее развития в 2021 г. При этом нельзя исключить вероятность завоза этой инфекции из эндемичных стран и необходимость проведения комплекса дифференцированных противоэпидемических (профилактических) мероприятий в рамках государственного санитарно-эпидемиологического надзора с целью локализации и ликвидации завозного очага и недопущения распространения инфекции. 

Aim of the work – to assess the epidemiological situation on cholera in 2020 and to make a forecast for 2021 based on the monitoring data and analysis of morbidity around the world for the period of 2011–2020. During the period between 2011 and 2020, 4 413 988 cases of cholera were recorded in 97 countries of the world with a general trend towards a decrease in the incidence (coefficient of accuracy of approximation R2  – 0.5705). However, due to the continuing epidemic manifestations of cholera in the endemic countries of Asia, Africa and America, the epidemiological situation on cholera on these continents was characterized as unfavorable in 2020. The emergence of a new “post-Haitian” lineage was observed among epidemically hazardous strains of Vibrio cholerae O1. In 2020, no epidemically dangerous strains of V. cholerae O1, O139 were isolated from humans on the territory of the Russian Federation. 25 non-toxigenic V. cholerae O1 El Tor strains were isolated from environmental objects, eight out of which (ctxA-, tcpA+), according to PCR-INDEL typing and SNP analysis of sequences, belonged to the clonal complex. The results of the analysis of biological properties and phylogenetic relations between the isolated non-toxigenic strains provided the basis for considering the epidemiological situation on cholera in Russia in 2020 as a stable one and a similar forecast of its development in 2021. At the same time, the possibility of importation of this infection from endemic countries cannot be ruled out, as well as the need to carry out a complex of differentiated anti-epidemic (preventive) measures within the framework of the state sanitary-epidemiological surveillance in order to localize and eliminate the imported focus and avoid the spread of the infection.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.