microbeПроблемы особо опасных инфекцийProblems of Particularly Dangerous Infections0370-10692658-719XRussian Research Anti-Plague Institute “Microbe”10.21055/0370-1069-2022-1-24-34microbe-1654Research ArticleОБЗОРЫREVIEWSХолера: тенденции развития эпидемического процесса в 2021 г., прогноз на 2022 г.Cholera: Trends in the Development of the Epidemic Process in 2021, Forecast for 2022https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0550-2221НосковА. К.NoskovA. K.

344002, Ростов-на-Дону, ул. М. Горького, 117/40

117/40, M. Gor`kogo St., Rostov-on-Don, 344002

plague@aaanet.ruhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-6540-2778КругликовВ. Д.KruglikovV. D.

344002, Ростов-на-Дону, ул. М. Горького, 117/40

117/40, M. Gor`kogo St., Rostov-on-Don, 344002

plague@aaanet.ruhttps://orcid.org/0000-0001-5020-1466МосквитинаЭ. А.MoskvitinaE. A.

344002, Ростов-на-Дону, ул. М. Горького, 117/40

117/40, M. Gor`kogo St., Rostov-on-Don, 344002

plague@aaanet.ruhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-9216-7777МонаховаЕ. В.MonakhovaE. V.

344002, Ростов-на-Дону, ул. М. Горького, 117/40

117/40, M. Gor`kogo St., Rostov-on-Don, 344002

plague@aaanet.ruhttps://orcid.org/0000-0001-8481-6442МироноваЛ. В.MironovaL. V.

664047, Иркутск, ул. Трилиссера, 78

78, Trilissera St., Irkutsk, 664047

adm@chumin.irkutsk.ruhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-5506-4285КрицкийА. А.KritskyА. A.

410005, Саратов, ул. Университетская, 46

46, Universitetskaya St., Saratov, 410005

rusrapi@microbe.ruhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-5426-3311ЛопатинА. А.LopatinA. A.

127490, Москва, ул. Мусоргского, 4

4, Musorgskogo St., Moscow, 127490

protivochym@nln.ruhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-4059-2878ЧемисоваО. С.ChemisovaO. S.

344002, Ростов-на-Дону, ул. М. Горького, 117/40

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plague@aaanet.ruhttps://orcid.org/0000-0001-7571-7848СоболеваЕ. Г.SobolevaE. G.

344002, Ростов-на-Дону, ул. М. Горького, 117/40

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plague@aaanet.ruhttps://orcid.org/0000-0001-6999-1875ИвановаС. М.IvanovaS. M.

127490, Москва, ул. Мусоргского, 4

4, Musorgskogo St., Moscow, 127490

protivochym@nln.ruhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-9056-3231ВодопьяновА. С.Vodop’yanovA. S.

344002, Ростов-на-Дону, ул. М. Горького, 117/40

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plague@aaanet.ruhttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-4879-6717СтенинаС. И.SteninaS. I.

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plague@aaanet.ruhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-7178-8021ПисановР. В.PisanovR. V.

344002, Ростов-на-Дону, ул. М. Горького, 117/40

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plague@aaanet.ruhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-5073-2918ЛевченкоД. А.LevchenkoD. A.

344002, Ростов-на-Дону, ул. М. Горького, 117/40

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plague@aaanet.ruhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-9996-4189ПодойницынаО. А.PodoinitsynaO. A.

344002, Ростов-на-Дону, ул. М. Горького, 117/40

117/40, M. Gor`kogo St., Rostov-on-Don, 344002

plague@aaanet.ruhttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-0868-6791НепомнящаяН. Б.NepomnyashchayaN. B.

344002, Ростов-на-Дону, ул. М. Горького, 117/40

117/40, M. Gor`kogo St., Rostov-on-Don, 344002

plague@aaanet.ruhttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-4254-3313ЕжоваМ. И.EzhovaM. I.

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plague@aaanet.ruФКУЗ Ростовский-на-Дону научно-исследовательский противочумный институтРоссияRostov-on-Don Research Anti-Plague InstituteRussian FederationФКУЗ Иркутский научно-исследовательский противочумный институт Сибири и Дальнего ВостокаРоссияIrkutsk Research Anti-Plague Institute of Siberia and Far EastRussian FederationФКУЗ Российский научно-исследовательский противочумный институт МикробРоссияRussian Research Anti-Plague Institute MicrobeRussian FederationФКУЗ Противочумный центрРоссияPlague Control CenterRussian Federation202219042022012434Copyright © Носков А.К., Кругликов В.Д., Москвитина Э.А., Монахова Е.В., Миронова Л.В., Крицкий А.А., Лопатин А.А., Чемисова О.С., Соболева Е.Г., Иванова С.М., Водопьянов А.С., Стенина С.И., Писанов Р.В., Левченко Д.А., Подойницына О.А., Непомнящая Н.Б., Ежова М.И., 20222022Носков А.К., Кругликов В.Д., Москвитина Э.А., Монахова Е.В., Миронова Л.В., Крицкий А.А., Лопатин А.А., Чемисова О.С., Соболева Е.Г., Иванова С.М., Водопьянов А.С., Стенина С.И., Писанов Р.В., Левченко Д.А., Подойницына О.А., Непомнящая Н.Б., Ежова М.И.Noskov A.K., Kruglikov V.D., Moskvitina E.A., Monakhova E.V., Mironova L.V., Kritsky А.A., Lopatin A.A., Chemisova O.S., Soboleva E.G., Ivanova S.M., Vodop’yanov A.S., Stenina S.I., Pisanov R.V., Levchenko D.A., Podoinitsyna O.A., Nepomnyashchaya N.B., Ezhova M.I.Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://journal.microbe.ru/jour/article/view/1654

Цель работы – обобщение результатов мониторинга холеры в 2021 г., оценка современных тенденций развития эпидемического процесса и прогнозирование эпидемиологической ситуации в Российской Федерации на 2022 г. В период 2012–2021 гг. в мире зарегистрировано 4117264 случая холеры с распространением инфекции в 83 странах всех континентов с тенденцией снижения заболеваемости в странах Азии и Африки. Динамика помесячной заболеваемости в 2021 г. связана с чрезвычайными ситуациями как факторами эпидемиологического риска. Эпидемии и вспышки холеры регистрировались на фоне пандемии COVID-19 и представляли двойную нагрузку для систем здравоохранения. Вместе с тем обобщение результатов мониторинга холеры на территориях субъектов РФ показало, что прогноз об эпидемическом благополучии на 2021 г. полностью оправдался. Определено, что увеличение количества нетоксигенных штаммов Vibrio cholerae О1 (67), выделенных из водных объектов, по сравнению с 2020 г. (25) в основном связано с принадлежностью ряда изолятов к клональным комплексам. Изучение филогенетических связей продемонстрировало, что обнаружение штаммов, имеющих генотипы, которые уже выявлялись у выделенных в предыдущие годы, свидетельствовало об их персистентном потенциале. Выявление штаммов с новыми генотипами, которые ранее устанавливались у штаммов, циркулирующих на других территориях, указывало на возможность их периодических завозов. Прогноз эпидемиологической ситуации по холере в России на 2022 г. связан с продолжением существования рисков завоза. При отсутствии реализации данных эпидемиологических рисков прогнозируется стабильная эпидемиологическая обстановка по этой инфекции на территории страны. Предполагается продолжение обнаружения в водных объектах окружающей среды эпидемически незначимых штаммов холерных вибрионов O1 серогруппы, в том числе их клонов и/или клональных комплексов, включая штаммы, которые могут явиться этиологическим фактором спорадических случаев или вспышек заболеваний.

The aim of the work was to summarize the results of cholera monitoring in 2021, to assess current trends in the development of the epidemic process, and to predict the epidemiological situation in the Russian Federation for 2022. It was established that within the period of 2012–2021, 4117264 cases of cholera with the spread of infection across 83 countries on all continents were registered in the world and there was a downward trend in the incidence in Asia and Africa. The dynamics of monthly morbidity in 2021 was associated with emergencies as factors of epidemiological risk. Epidemics and outbreaks of cholera were documented against the background of COVID-19 pandemic and laid a double burden on healthcare systems. At the same time, based on the overview of the results of cholera monitoring in the constituent entities of the Russian Federation, it was shown that the forecast of epidemic well-being given for 2021 was fully justified. It has been determined that the increase in the number of non-toxigenic strains of Vibrio cholerae O1 (67) isolated from water bodies compared to 2020 (25) is mainly due to the appurtenance of a number of isolates to clonal complexes. The study of phylogenetic relation has demonstrated that the detection of strains with genotypes which were previously identified in the isolates evidences the persistence potential. The identification of strains with new genotypes, which were earlier established in the strains circulating in other territories, pointed at the possibility of the occasional importations. The forecast of the epidemiological situation on cholera in Russia for 2022 is associated with the continuous existence of risks of introduction. If these epidemiological risks are not realized, a favorable epidemiological situation is predicted regarding this infection in the country. It is expected that the detection of epidemiologically insignificant strains of V. cholerae O1 in environmental water bodies, along with their clones and/or clonal complexes, will remain, including strains that may be an etiological factor in sporadic cases or outbreaks of disease.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.