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<article article-type="research-article" dtd-version="1.3" xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance" xml:lang="ru"><front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">microbe</journal-id><journal-title-group><journal-title xml:lang="ru">Проблемы особо опасных инфекций</journal-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>Problems of Particularly Dangerous Infections</trans-title></trans-title-group></journal-title-group><issn pub-type="ppub">0370-1069</issn><issn pub-type="epub">2658-719X</issn><publisher><publisher-name>Russian Research Anti-Plague Institute “Microbe”</publisher-name></publisher></journal-meta><article-meta><article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.21055/0370-1069-2013-1-11-17</article-id><article-id custom-type="elpub" pub-id-type="custom">microbe-2</article-id><article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Research Article</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="ru"><subject>ОБЗОРЫ И ПРОГНОЗЫ</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="en"><subject>REVIEWS AND PROGNOSES</subject></subj-group></article-categories><title-group><article-title>Характеристика эпидемиологической обстановки по холере в мире (2003–2012 гг.) и прогноз на 2013 г</article-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>Characteristics of the Epidemiological Situation on Cholera the World Over</trans-title></trans-title-group></title-group><contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Москвитина</surname><given-names>Э. А.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Moskvitina</surname><given-names>E. A.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><email xlink:type="simple">plague@aaanet.ru</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Мазрухо</surname><given-names>А. Б.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Mazrukho</surname><given-names>A. B.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><email xlink:type="simple">plague@aaanet.ru</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Адаменко</surname><given-names>О. Л.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Adamenko</surname><given-names>O. L.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><email xlink:type="simple">plague@aaanet.ru</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Арешина</surname><given-names>О. А.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Areshina</surname><given-names>O. A.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><email xlink:type="simple">plague@aaanet.ru</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Назаретян</surname><given-names>А. А.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Nazaretyan</surname><given-names>A. A.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><email xlink:type="simple">plague@aaanet.ru</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Кругликов</surname><given-names>В. Д.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Kruglikov</surname><given-names>V. D.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><email xlink:type="simple">plague@aaanet.ru</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Иванова</surname><given-names>С. М.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Ivanova</surname><given-names>S. M.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><email xlink:type="simple">protivochym@nln.ru</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-2"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Козина</surname><given-names>Д. А.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Kozina</surname><given-names>D. A.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><email xlink:type="simple">plague@aaanet.ru</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib></contrib-group><aff-alternatives id="aff-1"><aff xml:lang="ru"><institution>Ростовский-на-Дону научно-исследовательский противочумный институт</institution><country>Россия</country></aff><aff xml:lang="en"><institution>Rostov-on-Don Research Anti-Plague Institute</institution><country>Russian Federation</country></aff></aff-alternatives><aff-alternatives id="aff-2"><aff xml:lang="ru"><institution>Противочумный центр</institution><country>Россия</country></aff><aff xml:lang="en"><institution>Plague Control Center</institution><country>Russian Federation</country></aff></aff-alternatives><pub-date pub-type="collection"><year>2013</year></pub-date><pub-date pub-type="epub"><day>20</day><month>03</month><year>2013</year></pub-date><volume>0</volume><issue>1</issue><fpage>11</fpage><lpage>17</lpage><permissions><copyright-statement>Copyright &amp;#x00A9; Москвитина Э.А., Мазрухо А.Б., Адаменко О.Л., Арешина О.А., Назаретян А.А., Кругликов В.Д., Иванова С.М., Козина Д.А., 2013</copyright-statement><copyright-year>2013</copyright-year><copyright-holder xml:lang="ru">Москвитина Э.А., Мазрухо А.Б., Адаменко О.Л., Арешина О.А., Назаретян А.А., Кругликов В.Д., Иванова С.М., Козина Д.А.</copyright-holder><copyright-holder xml:lang="en">Moskvitina E.A., Mazrukho A.B., Adamenko O.L., Areshina O.A., Nazaretyan A.A., Kruglikov V.D., Ivanova S.M., Kozina D.A.</copyright-holder><license xml:lang="ru" license-type="creative-commons-attribution" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" xlink:type="simple"><license-p>Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.</license-p></license><license xml:lang="en" license-type="creative-commons-attribution" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" xlink:type="simple"><license-p>This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.</license-p></license></permissions><self-uri xlink:href="https://journal.microbe.ru/jour/article/view/2">https://journal.microbe.ru/jour/article/view/2</self-uri><abstract><p>В последнее десятилетие в мире выявлен рост в динамике заболеваемости холерой (с учетом прямолинейной линии тренда). На 2013 год прогнозируется сохранение этой тенденции. Эпидемии, вспышки и завозы инфекции имели место в 109 странах Азии, Африки, Америки, Европы и Австралии с Океанией. Продолжалось расширение нозоареала за счет вовлечения в эпидемический процесс новых административных территорий и стран, в том числе впервые за период 7-й пандемии. Помимо эндемичных территорий в Индии и Бангладеш, выявлено формирование эндемичных очагов в 12 странах Африки, последовательное во времени и поэтапное в пространстве (по провинциям, округам, штатам, регионам стран) распространение эпидемической холеры, что свидетельствует о продолжении 7-й пандемии. Штаммы 
                  V. cholerae О1 Эль Тор , имеющие классический аллель ctx-B, распространяются в глобальном масштабе, что, наряду с вышеизложенным, определяет неблагоприятный прогноз по холере на глобальном уровне.</p></abstract><trans-abstract xml:lang="en"><p>Within the last decade increase in cholera morbidity rate in the world has been revealed (with due consideration to linear trend). For 2013 maintenance of the tendency is forecasted. Epidemics, outbreaks and importations of the infection have occurred in 109 countries around Asia, Africa, America, Europe, Australia and Oceania. Nosoarea has been expanding owing to inclusion of new administrative territories and countries into the epidemic process, some cases being registered for the first time during the seventh pandemic. Apart from the endemic territories in India and Bangladesh, formation of endemic foci in twelve African countries has been exposed, as well as continued dissemination of epidemic cholera, consecutive in time and spatially stepwise. These facts testify of the follow-up of the seventh pandemic. Moreover, 
                  V. cholerae O1 El Tor strains with classical ctx-B allele have been spreading worldwide, which coupled with factors mentioned above predetermines unfavorable cholera forecast on the global level.</p></trans-abstract><kwd-group xml:lang="ru"><kwd>холера</kwd><kwd>эпидемии</kwd><kwd>эндемичные территории</kwd><kwd>природные и социальные условия</kwd><kwd>измененные в геноме варианты V cholerae O1</kwd><kwd>прогноз</kwd><kwd>cholera</kwd><kwd>epidemics</kwd><kwd>endemic territories</kwd><kwd>natural and social environments</kwd><kwd>altered V cholerae O1 genovariants</kwd><kwd>prognosis</kwd></kwd-group></article-meta></front><back><ref-list><title>References</title><ref id="cit1"><label>1</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Водопьянов С.О., Москвитина Э.А., Водопьянов А.С., Олейников И.П., Дуванова О.В. Геоинформационная система «Холера. Штаммы–VNTR». Использование при эпидемиологическом надзоре. 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