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<article article-type="research-article" dtd-version="1.3" xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance" xml:lang="ru"><front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">microbe</journal-id><journal-title-group><journal-title xml:lang="ru">Проблемы особо опасных инфекций</journal-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>Problems of Particularly Dangerous Infections</trans-title></trans-title-group></journal-title-group><issn pub-type="ppub">0370-1069</issn><issn pub-type="epub">2658-719X</issn><publisher><publisher-name>Russian Research Anti-Plague Institute “Microbe”</publisher-name></publisher></journal-meta><article-meta><article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.21055/0370-1069-2024-3-133-143</article-id><article-id custom-type="elpub" pub-id-type="custom">microbe-2052</article-id><article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Research Article</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="ru"><subject>ОРИГИНАЛЬНЫЕ СТАТЬИ</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="en"><subject>ORIGINAL ARTICLES</subject></subj-group></article-categories><title-group><article-title>Оценка влияния климатических факторов на заболеваемость Крымской геморрагической лихорадкой: комплексный анализ данных по России, Казахстану, Турции и Ирану с 1999 по 2022 г.</article-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>Assessment of the Influence of Climatic Factors on the Incidence of Crimean Hemorrhagic Fever: a Comprehensive Analysis of Data for Russia, Kazakhstan, Turkey and Iran between 1999 and 2022</trans-title></trans-title-group></title-group><contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8114-1002</contrib-id><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Лизинфельд</surname><given-names>И. А.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Lizinfeld</surname><given-names>I. A.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>Российская Федерация, 111123, Москва, ул. Новогиреевская, 3а</p><p>Российская Федерация, 125993, Москва, ул. Баррикадная, 2/1</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>3a, Novogireevskaya St., Moscow, 111123, Russian Federation</p><p>2/1, Barrikadnaya St., Moscow, 125993, Russian Federation</p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">crie@pcr.ru</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2570-711X</contrib-id><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Пшеничная</surname><given-names>Н. Ю.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Pshenichnaya</surname><given-names>N. Yu.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>Российская Федерация, 111123, Москва, ул. Новогиреевская, 3а</p><p>Российская Федерация, 125993, Москва, ул. Баррикадная, 2/1</p><p>Российская Федерация, 129110, Москва, ул. Щепкина, 61/2</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>3a, Novogireevskaya St., Moscow, 111123, Russian Federation</p><p>2/1, Barrikadnaya St., Moscow, 125993, Russian Federation</p><p>61/2, Shchepkin St., Moscow, 129110, Russian Federation</p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">crie@pcr.ru</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-2"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6474-3696</contrib-id><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Найденова</surname><given-names>Е. В.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Naidenova</surname><given-names>E. V.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>Найденова Екатерина Владимировна</p><p>Российская Федерация, 410005, Саратов, ул. Университетская, 46</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>46, Universitetskaya St., Saratov, 410005, Russian Federation</p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">rusrapi@microbe.ru</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-3"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0009-0005-1864-3009</contrib-id><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Гуркин</surname><given-names>Г. А.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Gurkin</surname><given-names>G. A.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>Российская Федерация, 410005, Саратов, ул. Университетская, 46</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>46, Universitetskaya St., Saratov, 410005, Russian Federation</p></bio><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-3"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5416-6714</contrib-id><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Блинова</surname><given-names>К. Д.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Blinova</surname><given-names>K. D.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>Российская Федерация, 410005, Саратов, ул. Университетская, 46</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>46, Universitetskaya St., Saratov, 410005, Russian Federation</p></bio><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-3"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1210-2018</contrib-id><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Абуова</surname><given-names>Г. Н.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Abuova</surname><given-names>G. N.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>160019, Шымкент, пл. Аль-Фараби, 1/1</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>1/1, Al-Farabi Sq., Shymkent, 160019, Republic of Kazakhstan</p></bio><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-4"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6033-8543</contrib-id><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Leblebicioglu</surname><given-names>Н.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Leblebicioglu</surname><given-names>H.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>Самсун</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Samsun</p></bio><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-5"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6082-072X</contrib-id><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Mardani</surname><given-names>М.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Mardani</surname><given-names>M.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>Тегеран</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Tehran</p></bio><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-6"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4228-9044</contrib-id><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Акимкин</surname><given-names>В. Г.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Akimkin</surname><given-names>V. G.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>Российская Федерация, 111123, Москва, ул. Новогиреевская, 3а</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>3a, Novogireevskaya St., Moscow, 111123, Russian Federation</p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">crie@pcr.ru</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-7"/></contrib></contrib-group><aff-alternatives id="aff-1"><aff xml:lang="ru"><institution>ФБУН «Центральный научно-исследовательский институт эпидемиологии»;&#13;
ФГБОУ ДПО «Российская медицинская академия непрерывного профессионального образования» Минздрава России</institution><country>Россия</country></aff><aff xml:lang="en"><institution>Central Research Institute of Epidemiology;&#13;
Russian Medical Academy of Continuing Professional Education</institution><country>Russian Federation</country></aff></aff-alternatives><aff-alternatives id="aff-2"><aff xml:lang="ru"><institution>ФБУН «Центральный научно-исследовательский институт эпидемиологии»;&#13;
ФГБОУ ДПО «Российская медицинская академия непрерывного профессионального образования» Минздрава России;&#13;
ГБУЗ Московской области «Московский областной научно-исследовательский клинический институт им. М.Ф. Владимирского»</institution><country>Россия</country></aff><aff xml:lang="en"><institution>Central Research Institute of Epidemiology;&#13;
Russian Medical Academy of Continuing Professional Education;&#13;
Moscow Regional Research and Clinical Institute named after M.F. Vladimirsky</institution><country>Russian Federation</country></aff></aff-alternatives><aff-alternatives id="aff-3"><aff xml:lang="ru"><institution>ФКУН «Российский научно-исследовательский противочумный институт «Микроб»</institution><country>Россия</country></aff><aff xml:lang="en"><institution>Russian Research Anti-Plague Institute “Microbe”</institution><country>Russian Federation</country></aff></aff-alternatives><aff-alternatives id="aff-4"><aff xml:lang="ru"><institution>АО «Южно-Казахстанская медицинская академия»</institution><country>Казахстан</country></aff><aff xml:lang="en"><institution>South Kazakhstan Medical Academy</institution><country>Kazakhstan</country></aff></aff-alternatives><aff-alternatives id="aff-5"><aff xml:lang="ru"><institution>Инфекционное отделение госпиталя VM Medical Park Samsun</institution><country>Турция</country></aff><aff xml:lang="en"><institution>VM Medical Park Samsun Hospital</institution><country>Turkey</country></aff></aff-alternatives><aff-alternatives id="aff-6"><aff xml:lang="ru"><institution>Исследовательский центр инфекционных болезней и тропической медицины Медицинского университета им. Шахида Бехешти</institution><country>Иран</country></aff><aff xml:lang="en"><institution>Infectious Diseases and Tropical Medicine Research Center, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences</institution><country>Islamic Republic of Iran</country></aff></aff-alternatives><aff-alternatives id="aff-7"><aff xml:lang="ru"><institution>ФБУН «Центральный научно-исследовательский институт эпидемиологии»</institution><country>Россия</country></aff><aff xml:lang="en"><institution>Central Research Institute of Epidemiology</institution><country>Russian Federation</country></aff></aff-alternatives><pub-date pub-type="collection"><year>2024</year></pub-date><pub-date pub-type="epub"><day>02</day><month>10</month><year>2024</year></pub-date><volume>0</volume><issue>3</issue><fpage>133</fpage><lpage>143</lpage><permissions><copyright-statement>Copyright &amp;#x00A9; Лизинфельд И.А., Пшеничная Н.Ю., Найденова Е.В., Гуркин Г.А., Блинова К.Д., Абуова Г.Н., Leblebicioglu Н., Mardani М., Акимкин В.Г., 2024</copyright-statement><copyright-year>2024</copyright-year><copyright-holder xml:lang="ru">Лизинфельд И.А., Пшеничная Н.Ю., Найденова Е.В., Гуркин Г.А., Блинова К.Д., Абуова Г.Н., Leblebicioglu Н., Mardani М., Акимкин В.Г.</copyright-holder><copyright-holder xml:lang="en">Lizinfeld I.A., Pshenichnaya N.Y., Naidenova E.V., Gurkin G.A., Blinova K.D., Abuova G.N., Leblebicioglu H., Mardani M., Akimkin V.G.</copyright-holder><license xml:lang="ru" license-type="creative-commons-attribution" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" xlink:type="simple"><license-p>Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.</license-p></license><license xml:lang="en" license-type="creative-commons-attribution" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" xlink:type="simple"><license-p>This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.</license-p></license></permissions><self-uri xlink:href="https://journal.microbe.ru/jour/article/view/2052">https://journal.microbe.ru/jour/article/view/2052</self-uri><abstract><p>В последние десятилетия эпидемиология инфекционных болезней, передающихся трансмиссивным путем, существенно изменилась из-за глобального потепления климата, оказывающего влияние на условия обитания переносчиков и увеличение скорости распространения возбудителей. Это может привести как к расширению границ существующих, так и к возникновению новых природных очагов инфекционных болезней, в том числе и Крымской геморрагической лихорадки (КГЛ). Цель исследования – комплексная оценка возможного влияния климатических факторов на заболеваемость КГЛ на эндемичных территориях России, Казахстана, Турции и Ирана в 1999–2022 гг. Материалы и методы. Проанализированы данные о количестве лабораторно подтвержденных случаев КГЛ в эндемичных регионах России, Казахстана, Турции и Ирана и проведено их сравнение с ежегодными климатическими показателями (среднегодовая температура, самая высокая и самая низкая среднегодовые температуры и среднегодовое количество выпавших осадков) начиная с 1999 г. Результаты и обсуждение. За период наблюдения заболеваемость КГЛ в рассматриваемых регионах отличалась разнонаправленной динамикой. Корреляционный анализ выявил положительную связь между среднегодовым количеством осадков и случаями КГЛ (rxy=0,553; p&lt;0,001), а температурные параметры не имели статистической значимости. Регрессионный анализ подтвердил важность фиктивных переменных, представляющих страны и временной период, но не показал статистически значимых взаимосвязей между климатическими факторами. Суммарное (в рассматриваемых странах) среднегодовое количество выпавших осадков – статистически значимый фактор (b=1,600; s.e.=0,192; p&lt;0,001), что подчеркивает потенциальное влияние изменения климатических условий на распространение вируса Крымско-Конго геморрагической лихорадки. Метод множественной линейной регрессии выявил статистически значимое влияние самой высокой температуры воздуха (b=27,645; s.e.=7,859; p&lt;0,001) и количества осадков (b=1,473; s.e.=0,197; p&lt;0,001) на заболеваемость КГЛ . Исследование показывает необходимость включения ежегодного прогнозирования климата в стратегии контроля за заболеваемостью КГЛ и разработки единообразных систем мониторинга для более точной оценки эпидемиологической ситуации в эндемичных регионах.</p></abstract><trans-abstract xml:lang="en"><p>In recent decades, the epidemiology of vector-borne infectious diseases has changed significantly due to global warming, which affects the habitats of vectors and increases the rate of spread of pathogens. This can lead to both the expansion of the boundaries of existing and the emergence of new natural foci of infectious diseases, including Crimean hemorrhagic fever (CHF). The aim of the study was to comprehensively assess the possible impact of climatic factors on the incidence of CHF in the endemic areas of Russia, Kazakhstan, Turkey and Iran in 1999–2022. Materials and methods. The data on the number of laboratory-confirmed cases of CHF in the endemic regions of Russia, Kazakhstan, Turkey and Iran were analyzed and compared with annual climatic indicators (average annual temperature, the highest and lowest average annual temperatures and average annual precipitation) starting from 1999. Results and discussion. During the observation period, the incidence of CHF in the regions under consideration was featured in a variety of trends. Correlation analysis revealed a positive relation between the average annual precipitation and CHF cases (rxy=0.553; p&lt;0.001), while temperature parameters were not statistically significant. Regression analysis confirmed the importance of dummy variables representing countries and time period, but did not show statistically significant relations between climatic factors. The total (in the countries under consideration) average annual precipitation is a statistically significant factor (b=1.600; s.e.=0.192; p&lt;0.001), which emphasizes the potential impact of changing climatic conditions on the spread of the Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever virus. The multiple linear regression method revealed a statistically significant effect of the highest air temperature (b=27.645; s.e.=7.859; p&lt;0.001) and precipitation (b=1.473; s.e.=0.197; p&lt;0.001) on the incidence of CHF. The study shows the need to include annual climate forecasting in CHF control strategies and to develop unified monitoring systems for a more accurate assessment of the epidemiological situation in endemic regions.</p></trans-abstract><kwd-group xml:lang="ru"><kwd>вирус Крымской-Конго геморрагической лихорадки</kwd><kwd>заболеваемость Крымской геморрагической лихорадкой</kwd><kwd>эндемичные регионы</kwd><kwd>глобальное потепление климата</kwd><kwd>влияние изменения климата на заболеваемость</kwd></kwd-group><kwd-group xml:lang="en"><kwd>Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever virus</kwd><kwd>incidence of Crimean hemorrhagic fever</kwd><kwd>endemic regions</kwd><kwd>global climate warming</kwd><kwd>the impact of climate change on morbidity rates</kwd></kwd-group></article-meta></front><back><ref-list><title>References</title><ref id="cit1"><label>1</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">El-Sayed A., Kamel M. 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