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<article article-type="research-article" dtd-version="1.3" xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance" xml:lang="ru"><front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">microbe</journal-id><journal-title-group><journal-title xml:lang="ru">Проблемы особо опасных инфекций</journal-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>Problems of Particularly Dangerous Infections</trans-title></trans-title-group></journal-title-group><issn pub-type="ppub">0370-1069</issn><issn pub-type="epub">2658-719X</issn><publisher><publisher-name>Russian Research Anti-Plague Institute “Microbe”</publisher-name></publisher></journal-meta><article-meta><article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.21055/0370-1069-2025-1-74-83</article-id><article-id custom-type="elpub" pub-id-type="custom">microbe-2118</article-id><article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Research Article</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="ru"><subject>ОБЗОРЫ</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="en"><subject>REVIEWS</subject></subj-group></article-categories><title-group><article-title>Эпидемиологическая обстановка по чуме в мире и прогноз ее развития на 2025 г. в Российской Федерации</article-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>The Epidemiological Situation on Plague in the World and the Forecast of its Development in the Russian Federation for 2025</trans-title></trans-title-group></title-group><contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4099-9261</contrib-id><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Попов</surname><given-names>Н. В.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Popov</surname><given-names>N. V.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>410005, Саратов, ул. Университетская, 46</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>46, Universitetskaya St., Saratov, 410005</p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">rusrapi@microbe.ru</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8181-6727</contrib-id><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Карнаухов</surname><given-names>И. Г.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Karnaukhov</surname><given-names>I. G.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>410005, Саратов, ул. Университетская, 46</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>46, Universitetskaya St., Saratov, 410005</p></bio><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0677-4846</contrib-id><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Кузнецов</surname><given-names>А. А.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Kuznetsov</surname><given-names>A. A.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>410005, Саратов, ул. Университетская, 46</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>46, Universitetskaya St., Saratov, 410005</p></bio><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4893-7188</contrib-id><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Матросов</surname><given-names>А. 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Университетская, 46</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>46, Universitetskaya St., Saratov, 410005</p></bio><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2913-3766</contrib-id><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Марцоха</surname><given-names>К. С.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Martsokha</surname><given-names>K. S.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>410005, Саратов, ул. Университетская, 46</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>46, Universitetskaya St., Saratov, 410005</p></bio><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2578-1558</contrib-id><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Магеррамов</surname><given-names>Ш. В.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Magerramov</surname><given-names>Sh. V.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>410005, Саратов, ул. Университетская, 46</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>46, Universitetskaya St., Saratov, 410005</p></bio><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2994-473X</contrib-id><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Поспелов</surname><given-names>М. В.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Pospelov</surname><given-names>M. V.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>410005, Саратов, ул. 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А.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Lopatin</surname><given-names>A. A.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>127490, Москва, ул. Мусоргского, 4</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>4, Mussorgskogo St., Moscow, 127490</p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">apc-rpn@apc-rpn.ru</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-3"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3817-2513</contrib-id><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Дубянский</surname><given-names>В. М.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Dubyansky</surname><given-names>V. M.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>355035, Ставрополь, ул. 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Новогиреевская, 3а</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>3a, Novogireevskaya St., Moscow, 111123</p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">crie@pcr.ru</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-5"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Аязбаев</surname><given-names>Т. З.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Ayazbaev</surname><given-names>T. Z.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>050054, Алматы, ул. Жахангер, 14</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>14, Zhakhanger St., Almaty, 050054</p></bio><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-6"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Бамматов</surname><given-names>Д. М.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Bammatov</surname><given-names>D. M.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>414057, Астрахань, ул. Кубанская, 3</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>3, Kubanskaya St., Astrakhan, 414057</p></bio><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-7"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4201-5828</contrib-id><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Балахонов</surname><given-names>С. В.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Balakhonov</surname><given-names>S. V.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>664047, Иркутск, ул. Трилиссера, 78</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>78, Trilissera St., Irkutsk, 664047</p></bio><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-2"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9362-3949</contrib-id><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Куличенко</surname><given-names>А. Н.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Kulichenko</surname><given-names>A. N.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>355035, Ставрополь, ул. Советская, 13–15</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>13–15, Sovetskaya St., Stavropol, 355035</p></bio><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-4"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3788-3452</contrib-id><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Кутырев</surname><given-names>В. В.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Kutyrev</surname><given-names>V. V.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>410005, Саратов, ул. Университетская, 46</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>46, Universitetskaya St., Saratov, 410005</p></bio><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib></contrib-group><aff-alternatives id="aff-1"><aff xml:lang="ru"><institution>ФКУН «Российский научно-исследовательский противочумный институт «Микроб»</institution><country>Россия</country></aff><aff xml:lang="en"><institution>Russian Research Anti-Plague Institute “Microbe”</institution><country>Russian Federation</country></aff></aff-alternatives><aff-alternatives id="aff-2"><aff xml:lang="ru"><institution>ФКУЗ «Иркутский научно-исследовательский противочумный институт Сибири и Дальнего Востока»</institution><country>Россия</country></aff><aff xml:lang="en"><institution>Irkutsk Research Anti-Plague Institute of Siberia and the Far East</institution><country>Russian Federation</country></aff></aff-alternatives><aff-alternatives id="aff-3"><aff xml:lang="ru"><institution>ФКУЗ «Противочумный центр»</institution><country>Россия</country></aff><aff xml:lang="en"><institution>Plague Control Center</institution><country>Russian Federation</country></aff></aff-alternatives><aff-alternatives id="aff-4"><aff xml:lang="ru"><institution>ФКУЗ «Ставропольский научно-исследовательский противочумный институт»</institution><country>Россия</country></aff><aff xml:lang="en"><institution>Stavropol Research Anti-Plague Institute</institution><country>Russian Federation</country></aff></aff-alternatives><aff-alternatives id="aff-5"><aff xml:lang="ru"><institution>ФБУН «Центральный научно-исследовательский институт эпидемиологии»</institution><country>Россия</country></aff><aff xml:lang="en"><institution>Central Research Institute of Epidemiology</institution><country>Russian Federation</country></aff></aff-alternatives><aff-alternatives id="aff-6"><aff xml:lang="ru"><institution>Казахский научный центр карантинных и зоонозных инфекций имени Масгута Айкимбаева Министерства здравоохранения Республики Казахстан</institution><country>Казахстан</country></aff><aff xml:lang="en"><institution>Kazakh Scientific Center for Quarantine and Zoonotic Infections named after M. Aikimbaev of the Ministry of Health of the Republic of Kazakhstan</institution><country>Kazakhstan</country></aff></aff-alternatives><aff-alternatives id="aff-7"><aff xml:lang="ru"><institution>ФКУЗ «Астраханская противочумная станция»</institution><country>Россия</country></aff><aff xml:lang="en"><institution>Astrakhan Plague Control Station</institution><country>Russian Federation</country></aff></aff-alternatives><pub-date pub-type="collection"><year>2025</year></pub-date><pub-date pub-type="epub"><day>07</day><month>04</month><year>2025</year></pub-date><volume>0</volume><issue>1</issue><fpage>74</fpage><lpage>83</lpage><permissions><copyright-statement>Copyright &amp;#x00A9; Попов Н.В., Карнаухов И.Г., Кузнецов А.А., Матросов А.Н., Иванова А.В., Марцоха К.С., Магеррамов Ш.В., Поспелов М.В., Корзун В.М., Вержуцкий Д.Б., Чипанин Е.В., Холин А.В., Лопатин А.А., Дубянский В.М., Ашибоков У.М., Газиева А.Ю., Кутырев И.В., Аязбаев Т.З., Бамматов Д.М., Балахонов С.В., Куличенко А.Н., Кутырев В.В., 2025</copyright-statement><copyright-year>2025</copyright-year><copyright-holder xml:lang="ru">Попов Н.В., Карнаухов И.Г., Кузнецов А.А., Матросов А.Н., Иванова А.В., Марцоха К.С., Магеррамов Ш.В., Поспелов М.В., Корзун В.М., Вержуцкий Д.Б., Чипанин Е.В., Холин А.В., Лопатин А.А., Дубянский В.М., Ашибоков У.М., Газиева А.Ю., Кутырев И.В., Аязбаев Т.З., Бамматов Д.М., Балахонов С.В., Куличенко А.Н., Кутырев В.В.</copyright-holder><copyright-holder xml:lang="en">Popov N.V., Karnaukhov I.G., Kuznetsov A.A., Matrosov A.N., Ivanova A.V., Martsokha K.S., Magerramov S.V., Pospelov M.V., Korzun V.M., Verzhutsky D.B., Chipanin E.V., Kholin A.V., Lopatin A.A., Dubyansky V.M., Ashibokov U.M., Gazieva A.Y., Kutyrev I.V., Ayazbaev T.Z., Bammatov D.M., Balakhonov S.V., Kulichenko A.N., Kutyrev V.V.</copyright-holder><license xml:lang="ru" license-type="creative-commons-attribution" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" xlink:type="simple"><license-p>Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.</license-p></license><license xml:lang="en" license-type="creative-commons-attribution" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" xlink:type="simple"><license-p>This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.</license-p></license></permissions><self-uri xlink:href="https://journal.microbe.ru/jour/article/view/2118">https://journal.microbe.ru/jour/article/view/2118</self-uri><abstract><p>Целью обзора является оценка эпидемиологической ситуации по чуме в мире и прогноз ее развития в 2025 г. в Российской Федерации. В 2015–2024 гг. эпидемические проявления чумы зарегистрированы на территории десяти государств. Общее число случаев заболевания составило 5880, из них летальных – 582 (показатель летальности – 9,9 %). В 2024 г. в мире случаи заболевания чумой зарегистрированы в четырех государствах: Демократической Республике Конго (провинция Итури), Республике Мадагаскар (провинция Фианаранцуа), США (штаты Колорадо, Нью-Мексико, Орегон), Китайской Народной Республике. Всего зарегистрировано 443 случая заболевания чумой, из которых 17 (3,8 %) закончились летальным исходом. На территории Российской Федерации отмечается эпидемиологическое благополучие по чуме, однако практически ежегодно часть природных очагов проявляют эпизоотическую активность. В 2015–2024 гг. зараженные чумой животные выявлены в четырех природных очагах: Центрально-Кавказском высокогорном, Горно-Алтайском высокогорном, Тувинском горном, Прикаспийском песчаном. Всего в 2015–2024 гг. на энзоотичной по чуме территории Российской Федерации выделено 370 штаммов чумного микроба. Общая площадь выявленных эпизоотий чумы составила 15 618,0 км2 . В 2024 г. локальные эпизоотии чумы зарегистрированы на территории Кош-Агачского района Республики Алтай, Монгун-Тайгинского кожууна Республики Тыва. Эпизоотии чумы выявлены на территории двух (Горно-Алтайского высокогорного и Тувинского горного) из 11 природных очагов чумы Российской Федерации. Общая площадь эпизоотий составила 308,9 км2  (2023 г. – 731,2 км2 ). Всего в 2024 г. изолировано 8 (в 2023 г. – 55) культур чумного микроба. Вследствие выполнения учреждениями Роспотребнадзора комплекса профилактических мероприятий, эпидемические риски в эпизоотически активных природных очагах нивелированы, что явилось основой обеспечения эпидемиологического благополучия по чуме. Обосновано сохранение в 2025 г. низкого эпизоотического потенциала равнинных природных очагов чумы Прикаспия и Забайкалья. Дан прогноз на сохранение в 2025 г. напряженной эпидемиологической обстановки на территории республик Алтай и Тыва. Отмечена перспективность использования аналитической платформы Loginom для оценки потенциальной эпидемической опасности и прогнозирования эпидемиологической обстановки в природных очагах чумы.</p></abstract><trans-abstract xml:lang="en"><p>The aim of the review was to assess the epidemiological situation on plague in the world and to forecast its development in the Russian Federation in 2025. Epidemic manifestations of plague in 2015–2024 were registered on the territory of 10 states. The total number of cases was 5880; of which 582 were lethal (the mortality rate reached 9.9 %). In 2024, worldwide, cases of plague were reported in four countries: the Democratic Republic of the Congo (Ituri Province), the Republic of Madagascar (Fianarantsoa Province), the United States of America (Colorado, New Mexico, Oregon), and the People’s Republic of China. A total of 443 cases of plague were registered, of which 17 (3.8 %) had fatal outcome. The Russian Federation reported epidemiological security as regards plague, however, almost every year some of the natural foci show epizootic activity. In 2015–2024, plague-infected animals were detected in 4 natural foci: the Central Caucasian high-mountain, the Gorno-Altai high-mountain, the Tuva mountain, and the Precaspian sandy plague foci. In total, 370 strains of plague agent were isolated in the plague-enzootic territory of the Russian Federation in 2015–2024. The total area of the identified plague epizootics was 15 618.0 km2 . In 2024, local plague epizooties were registered in the Kosh-Agach district of the Altai Republic, Mongun-Taiga Kozhuun of the Republic of Tyva. Plague epizootics were detected on the territory of 2 (Gorno-Altai high-mountain and Tuva mountain) of the 11 natural plague foci of the Russian Federation. The total area of epizootics was 308.9 km2  (2023 – 731.2 km2 ). In total, 8 plague microbe cultures were isolated in 2024 (55 in 2023). Due to the implementation of a set of preventive measures through the efforts of the Rospotrebnadzor institutions, epidemic risks in epizootically active natural foci were significantly reduced, which was the basis for ensuring epidemiological safety as regards plague. The maintaining of the low epizootic potential of the lowland natural plague foci of the Caspian and Trans-Baikal areas in 2025 has been established. The forecast for the sustained tense epidemiological situation in the territory of the Altai Republic and the Republic of Tyva in 2025 is substantiated. The prospects of using the Loginom analytical platform to assess the potential epidemic hazard and predict the epidemiological situation in natural plague foci are outlined.</p></trans-abstract><kwd-group xml:lang="ru"><kwd>природные очаги чумы</kwd><kwd>эпизоотическая активность</kwd><kwd>эпидемиологический надзор</kwd><kwd>профилактические мероприятия</kwd><kwd>аналитическая платформа Loginom</kwd><kwd>ГИС-портал</kwd></kwd-group><kwd-group xml:lang="en"><kwd>natural plague foci</kwd><kwd>epizootic activity</kwd><kwd>epidemiological surveillance</kwd><kwd>preventive measures</kwd><kwd>Loginom analytical platform</kwd><kwd>GIS portal</kwd></kwd-group></article-meta></front><back><ref-list><title>References</title><ref id="cit1"><label>1</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Bezerra M.F., Fernandes D.L.R.S., Rocha I.V., Pitta J.L.L.P., Freitas N.D.A., Oliveira A.L.S., Guimarães R.J.P.S., Gomes E.C.S., de Andreazzi C.S., Sobreira M., Rezende A.M., Cordeiro-Estrela P., Almeida A.M.P. 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