microbeПроблемы особо опасных инфекцийProblems of Particularly Dangerous Infections0370-10692658-719XRussian Research Anti-Plague Institute “Microbe”10.21055/0370-1069-2017-1-13-23microbe-364Research ArticleОБЗОРЫ И ПРОГНОЗЫREVIEWS AND PROGNOSESЭПИДЕМИОЛОГИЧЕСКАЯ ОБСТАНОВКА ПО ХОЛЕРЕ В МИРЕ И РОССИИ В 2007–2016 ГГ., ПРОГНОЗ НА 2017 Г.EPIDEMIOLOGICAL SITUATION ON CHOLERA ACROSS THE GLOBE AND IN THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION IN 2007–2016. FORECAST FOR 2017МосквитинаЭ. А.MoskvitinaE. A.

355035, Ставрополь, ул. Советская, 13-15, e-mail: snipchi@ mail.stv.ru

13-15, Sovetskaya St., Stavropol, 355035, e-mail: snipchi@mail.stv.ru

plague@aaanet.ruТюленеваЕ. Г.TyulenevaE. G.

355035, Ставрополь, ул. Советская, 13-15, e-mail: snipchi@ mail.stv.ru

13-15, Sovetskaya St., Stavropol, 355035, e-mail: snipchi@mail.stv.ru

snipchi@mail.stv.ruСамородоваА. В.SamorodovaA. V.

355035, Ставрополь, ул. Советская, 13-15, e-mail: snipchi@ mail.stv.ru

13-15, Sovetskaya St., Stavropol, 355035, e-mail: snipchi@mail.stv.ru

snipchi@mail.stv.ruКругликовВ. Д.KruglikovV. D.

355035, Ставрополь, ул. Советская, 13-15, e-mail: snipchi@ mail.stv.ru

13-15, Sovetskaya St., Stavropol, 355035, e-mail: snipchi@mail.stv.ru

snipchi@mail.stv.ruТитоваС. В.TitovaS. V.

355035, Ставрополь, ул. Советская, 13-15, e-mail: snipchi@ mail.stv.ru

13-15, Sovetskaya St., Stavropol, 355035, e-mail: snipchi@mail.stv.ru

snipchi@mail.stv.ruИвановаС. М.IvanovaS. M.

127490, Москва, ул. Мусоргского, 4, e-mail: protivochym@nln.ru

4, Musorgskogo St., Moscow, 127490, e-mail: protivochym@nln.ru.      

protivochym@nln.ruКовалеваТ. В.KovalevaT. V.

355035, Ставрополь, ул. Советская, 13-15, e-mail: snipchi@ mail.stv.ru

13-15, Sovetskaya St., Stavropol, 355035, e-mail: snipchi@mail.stv.ru

snipchi@mail.stv.ruАнисимоваГ. Б.AnisimovaG. B.

355035, Ставрополь, ул. Советская, 13-15, e-mail: snipchi@ mail.stv.ru

13-15, Sovetskaya St., Stavropol, 355035, e-mail: snipchi@mail.stv.ru

snipchi@mail.stv.ruРостовский-на-Дону научно-исследовательский противочумный институтРоссияRostov-on-Don Research Anti-Plague InstituteRussian FederationПротивочумный центрРоссияPlague Control CenterRussian Federation201729032017011320Copyright © Москвитина Э.А., Тюленева Е.Г., Самородова А.В., Кругликов В.Д., Титова С.В., Иванова С.М., Ковалева Т.В., Анисимова Г.Б., 20172017Москвитина Э.А., Тюленева Е.Г., Самородова А.В., Кругликов В.Д., Титова С.В., Иванова С.М., Ковалева Т.В., Анисимова Г.Б.Moskvitina E.A., Tyuleneva E.G., Samorodova A.V., Kruglikov V.D., Titova S.V., Ivanova S.M., Kovaleva T.V., Anisimova G.B.Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://journal.microbe.ru/jour/article/view/364

При оценке эпидемиологической обстановки по холере в мире установлена тенденция снижения заболеваемости в 2016 г. при среднем ежегодном темпе 3,907 % (относительно 2007 г.). При сравнительном анализе помесячной заболеваемости в 2015 и 2016 гг., установлена круглогодичная регистрация холеры в ряде стран Африки и Карибского бассейна с подъемами в различные сезоны. Формирование эндемичных очагов продолжается. С 2007 по 2016 год в мире имели место 1733 импортированных случая холеры с преобладанием межгосударственных заносов в Азии. Для прогноза по холере в мире впервые проведена оценка риска активизации эпидемического процесса с учетом чрезвычайных ситуаций различного происхождения, социальных и природных условий с использованием экспертной оценки их в баллах. Эпидемические проявления холеры в России характеризовались заносами холеры в 2008, 2010, 2012 и 2014 гг.: выделением из поверхностных водоемов V. choleraeO1 биовара Эль Тор ctxA– tcpA–, clxA+ и V. choleraeO139 ctxA– и tcpA–, а также единичных V. choleraeO1 биовара Эль Тор сtхA+ tсра+. разработан алгоритм эпидемиологического расследования для выяснения причин и условий контаминации холерными вибрионами поверхностных водоемов. Прогноз по холере на глобальном уровне и в России на 2017 г. остается неблагоприятным.

Analysis of epidemiological situation on cholera around the world has demonstrated downward trend in morbidity rates in 2016; annual average decline being 3.907 % (by reference to 2007). Comparative assessment of monthly incidence in 2015 and 2016 shows perennial registration of cholera cases in a number of African countries and in the Caribbean with up-rises in different seasons. Establishment of epidemic foci is on-going. Between 2007 and 2016, 1733 imported cases of cholera took place across the globe. Interstate import dominated in Asia. For forecast development, for the first time ever, risk assessment of epidemic process activation has been performed, taking into consideration emergency situations of varying origin, social and natural environments, using expert evaluation scores. Epidemic manifestations of cholera in the Russian Federation were characterized by import of the infection in 2008, 2010, 2012, and 2014; isolation of V. cholerae O1 biovar El Tor ctxA– tcpA–, ctxA+ and V. cholerae O139 ctxA– and tcpA– from surface water bodies, as well as individual V. cholerae O1 biovar El Tor сtхA+ tсра+. Worked out has been the algorithm for epidemiological investigation of causes and conditions of surface water body contamination with cholera vibrios. Cholera forecast worldwide and in Russia for the year 2017 remains unfavorable.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.