microbeПроблемы особо опасных инфекцийProblems of Particularly Dangerous Infections0370-10692658-719XRussian Research Anti-Plague Institute “Microbe”10.21055/0370-1069-2018-1-36-43microbe-457Research ArticleОБЗОРЫREVIEWSХолера: оценка эпидемиологической обстановки в мире и России в 2008–2017 гг. прогноз на 2018 г.Cholera: Assessment of Epidemiological Situation on Cholera around the World and in Russia in 2008–2017. Forecast for 2018МосквитинаЭ. А.MoskvitinaE. A.

Ростов-на-Дону.

Rostov-on-Don.

plague@aaanet.ruТюленеваЕ. Г.TyulenevaE. G.

Ростов-на-Дону.

Rostov-on-Don.

КругликовВ. Д.KruglikovV. D.

Ростов-на-Дону.

Rostov-on-Don.

ТитоваС. В.TitovaS. V.

Ростов-на-Дону.

Rostov-on-Don.

ВодопьяновА. С.Vodop’yanovA. S.

Ростов-на-Дону.

Rostov-on-Don.

КуриленкоМ. Л.KurilenkoM. L.

Ростов-на-Дону.

Rostov-on-Don.

ПакскинаН. Д.PakskinaN. D.

Москва.

Moscow.

ИвановаС. М.IvanovaS. M.

Москва.

Moscow.

АнисимоваГ. Б.AnisimovaG. B.

Ростов-на-Дону.

Rostov-on-Don.

ВодопьяновС. О.Vodop’yanovS. O.

Ростов-на-Дону.

Rostov-on-Don.

ОлейниковИ. П.OleynikovI. P.

Ростов-на-Дону.

Rostov-on-Don.

ФКУЗ «Ростовский-на-Дону научно-исследовательский противочумный институт».РоссияRostov-on-Don Research Anti-Plague Institute.Russian FederationФедеральная служба по надзору в сфере защиты прав потребителей и благополучия человека.РоссияFederal Service for Surveillance in the Sphere of Consumers Rights Protection and Human Welfare.Russian FederationФКУЗ «Противочумный центр».РоссияPlague Control CenterRussian Federation201808042018013643Copyright © Москвитина Э.А., Тюленева Е.Г., Кругликов В.Д., Титова С.В., Водопьянов А.С., Куриленко М.Л., Пакскина Н.Д., Иванова С.М., Анисимова Г.Б., Водопьянов С.О., Олейников И.П., 20182018Москвитина Э.А., Тюленева Е.Г., Кругликов В.Д., Титова С.В., Водопьянов А.С., Куриленко М.Л., Пакскина Н.Д., Иванова С.М., Анисимова Г.Б., Водопьянов С.О., Олейников И.П.Moskvitina E.A., Tyuleneva E.G., Kruglikov V.D., Titova S.V., Vodop’yanov A.S., Kurilenko M.L., Pakskina N.D., Ivanova S.M., Anisimova G.B., Vodop’yanov S.O., Oleynikov I.P.Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://journal.microbe.ru/jour/article/view/457

В мире в 2017 г. продолжается тенденция снижения заболеваемости холерой (относительно 2008 г.) при среднем ежегодном темпе -1,113 %. установлена тенденция роста интенсивных помесячных показателей заболеваемости холерой в мире в 2017 г. по сравнению с 2015 и 2016 гг. Выявлено 25 стран с 70 эндемичными территориями, 11734 импортированных случая холеры на различные континенты с преобладанием межгосударственных заносов в Азии. В России имели место заносы холеры в 2008, 2010, 2012 и 2014 гг. из Индии. Из поверхностных водоемов выделены V. cholerae О1 биовара Эль Тор ctxA–tcpA–, ctxA–tcpA+ и V. cholerae о139 ctxA– и tcpA– , а также единичные V. cholerae О1 биовара Эль Тор ctxA+tcpA+. При INDEL-типировании 242 штаммов V. cholerae O1 из объектов окружающей среды (2014–2017 гг.) получены данные о принадлежности к одному кластеру V. cholerae O1 ctxA–tcpA+ и, наряду с генетическим разнообразием V. cholerae O1 ctxA–tcpА– в ряде регионов, ежегодно были изолированы штаммы одного или близкородственных генотипов. Впервые для прогноза разработана оценка риска активизации эпидемического процесса при холере в россии с учетом различных факторов (условий), их градации и экспертной оценки в баллах. Прогноз по холере на глобальном уровне и в России на 2018 г. неблагоприятный.

The trend of morbidity reduction at an average annual rate of 1.113 % in 2017 (in comparison to 2008) continues. The tendency of intensive monthly cholera incidence growth around the world in 2017 in relation to 2015 and 2016 is established. 25 countries with 70 endemic areas and 11734 imported cases of cholera onto different continents with predominance of interstate carrying of infection in Asia were identified. In Russia in 2008, 2010, 2012 and 2014 cholera importations from India have been registered. V. cholerae O1 biovar El Tor ctxA–tcpA–, ctxA–tcpA+, V. cholerae O139 ctxA– and tcpA– and singular V. cholerae O1 biovar El tor ctxA+tcpA+ strains were isolated from surface water bodies. INDEL typing of 242 V. cholerae O1 strains, isolated from environmental objects (2014–2017), provided the data which confirmed their belonging to common cluster of V. cholerae O1 ctxA–tcpA+. Along with genetic diversity of V. cholerae O1 ctxA–tcpA–, several strains of the same or closely related genotypes in some regions were isolated every year. For the first time ever the algorithm for risk of epidemic process activation assessment in case of cholera in Russia, taking into account the various factors (conditions), their gradation and expert scores, has been developed for the prediction. The forecast for cholera at the global level and in Russia for 2018 is unfavorable.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.