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<article article-type="research-article" dtd-version="1.3" xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance" xml:lang="ru"><front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">microbe</journal-id><journal-title-group><journal-title xml:lang="ru">Проблемы особо опасных инфекций</journal-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>Problems of Particularly Dangerous Infections</trans-title></trans-title-group></journal-title-group><issn pub-type="ppub">0370-1069</issn><issn pub-type="epub">2658-719X</issn><publisher><publisher-name>Russian Research Anti-Plague Institute “Microbe”</publisher-name></publisher></journal-meta><article-meta><article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.21055/0370-1069-2013-1-44-50</article-id><article-id custom-type="elpub" pub-id-type="custom">microbe-9</article-id><article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Research Article</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="ru"><subject>ОБЗОРЫ И ПРОГНОЗЫ</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="en"><subject>REVIEWS AND PROGNOSES</subject></subj-group></article-categories><title-group><article-title>Высокопатогенный грипп птиц A(H5N1): ситуация в 2009–2012 гг. и прогноз пандемического потенциала</article-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>Highly Pathogenic Avian Flu A(H5N1): State of Affairs in 2009–2012 and Forecast of Its Pandemic Potential</trans-title></trans-title-group></title-group><contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Шестопалов</surname><given-names>А. М.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Shestopalov</surname><given-names>A. M.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><email xlink:type="simple">shestopalov@vector.nsc.ru</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Кихтенко</surname><given-names>Н. В.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Kikhtenko</surname><given-names>N. V.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><email xlink:type="simple">noemail@neicon.ru</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Сергеев</surname><given-names>А. Н.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Sergeev</surname><given-names>A. N.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><email xlink:type="simple">noemail@neicon.ru</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Михеев</surname><given-names>В. Н.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Mikheev</surname><given-names>V. N.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><email xlink:type="simple">noemail@neicon.ru</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Ильичева</surname><given-names>Т. Н.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Il’Icheva</surname><given-names>T. N.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><email xlink:type="simple">noemail@neicon.ru</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Рыжиков</surname><given-names>А. Б.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Ryzhikov</surname><given-names>A. B.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><email xlink:type="simple">noemail@neicon.ru</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib></contrib-group><aff-alternatives id="aff-1"><aff xml:lang="ru"><institution>Государственный научный центр вирусологии и биотехнологии «Вектор»</institution><country>Россия</country></aff><aff xml:lang="en"><institution>State Research Centre of Virology and Biotechnology “Vector”</institution><country>Russian Federation</country></aff></aff-alternatives><pub-date pub-type="collection"><year>2013</year></pub-date><pub-date pub-type="epub"><day>20</day><month>03</month><year>2013</year></pub-date><volume>0</volume><issue>1</issue><fpage>44</fpage><lpage>50</lpage><permissions><copyright-statement>Copyright &amp;#x00A9; Шестопалов А.М., Кихтенко Н.В., Сергеев А.Н., Михеев В.Н., Ильичева Т.Н., Рыжиков А.Б., 2013</copyright-statement><copyright-year>2013</copyright-year><copyright-holder xml:lang="ru">Шестопалов А.М., Кихтенко Н.В., Сергеев А.Н., Михеев В.Н., Ильичева Т.Н., Рыжиков А.Б.</copyright-holder><copyright-holder xml:lang="en">Shestopalov A.M., Kikhtenko N.V., Sergeev A.N., Mikheev V.N., Il’Icheva T.N., Ryzhikov A.B.</copyright-holder><license xml:lang="ru" license-type="creative-commons-attribution" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" xlink:type="simple"><license-p>Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.</license-p></license><license xml:lang="en" license-type="creative-commons-attribution" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" xlink:type="simple"><license-p>This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.</license-p></license></permissions><self-uri xlink:href="https://journal.microbe.ru/jour/article/view/9">https://journal.microbe.ru/jour/article/view/9</self-uri><abstract><p>В обзоре обобщена и проанализирована современная ситуация по высокопатогенному гриппу птиц типа А подтипа H5N1 среди людей и животных за последние четыре года. Необычный рост заболеваемости, произошедший в Египте в 2009 г., а также групповые случаи заболевания людей, тесно связанных по времени и местоположению, и изменения вируса при его распространении в мире и расширении круга хозяев еще раз напоминают о том, что этот возбудитель обладает серьезным пандемическим потенциалом и требует постоянного и пристального внимания, чтобы обеспечить своевременное обнаружение происходящих эпидемиологических, клинических и вирусологических изменений.</p></abstract><trans-abstract xml:lang="en"><p>Avian flu is an infectious viral disease in birds that still retains its positions in some parts of Asia and Africa. This review contains summarization and analysis of facts regarding the current situation on highly pathogenic avian flu A-type subtype H5N1 among people and animals for the period of the past four years. Excess incidence rate in 2009 in Egypt, as well as cluster cases of the disease in humans, closely related in time and space, virus mutations as it spreads all over the world and diversification of the host specter, testify of the fact that this agent possesses significant pandemic potential and requires continuous close attention to provide for the well-timed detection of the occurring epidemiological, clinical and virological changes.</p></trans-abstract><kwd-group xml:lang="ru"><kwd>высокопатогенный грипп птиц</kwd><kwd>H5N1</kwd><kwd>пандемический потенциал</kwd><kwd>трансмиссивность</kwd><kwd>популяционный иммунитет</kwd><kwd>highly pathogenic avian flu</kwd><kwd>H5N1</kwd><kwd>pandemic potential</kwd><kwd>transmissibility</kwd><kwd>population immunity</kwd></kwd-group></article-meta></front><back><ref-list><title>References</title><ref id="cit1"><label>1</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Львов Д.К., Щелканов М.Ю., Власов Н.А., Прилипов А.Г., Дерябин П.Г., Федякина И.Т., Галкина И.В., Забережный А.Д., Ляпина О.В., Шляпникова О.В., Киреев Д.Е., Фесенко Е.Е., Калмыков М.В., Виткова О.Н., Морозова Т.Н., Прошина Е.С., Гребенникова Т.В., Аканина Д.С., Самохвалов Е.И., Альховский С.В., Волков В.А., Семенов В.И., Гапонов В.В., Шмаков Н.И., Кушнир А.Т., Казарян А.С., Стариков Н.С., Петренко М.С., Славский А.А., Литвин К.Е., Щербакова Л.О., Фролов А.В., Манин Т.Б., Уманец О.А., Бандеев В.В., Хван А.М., Дунаев В.Г., Челедина Т.П., Абгарян С.Р., Михайлович В.М., Заседателев А.С., Любченко Е.Н., Флягин В.Н., Тихонова И.Ф., Маслов Д.В., Ананьев В.Ю., Баранов Н.И., Гореликов В.Н., Яковлев С.С., Алипер Т.И., Непоклонов Е.A., Suarez D. 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