Epidemiological Situation on Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome in 2025 in the World and in the Russian Federation, Incidence Forecast for 2026

The aim of this review is to describe the global epidemiological situation on hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS), provide a comparative analysis of the epidemiological situation on HFRS for 2000–2025 in the constituent entities and federal districts of the Russian Federation, and outline an incidence forecast for 2026. HFRS remains a widespread disease in the Western Pacific Region, Southeast Asia, and Europe. In the Russian Federation, the majority of HFRS cases are registered in the Volga Federal District, which accounts for over 80 % of all cases. In 2025, 4,912 cases of HFRS were diagnosed in the Russian Federation, a 31 % increase as compared to the previous year (3,396). The incidence rate (3.36 per 100,000 population) was below the long-term average for the period of 2013–2024, excluding 2020 and 2021 (5.06). There were 12 deaths (lethality rate – 0.24 %, mortality – 0.01 per 100,000 population). The epidemiological process was most active in the territory of 11 entities of the Volga Federal District: the Republic of Bashkortostan, the Udmurt Republic, Kirov, Samara, Penza, Nizhny Novgorod, Orenburg, Ulyanovsk Regions, the Mari El Republic, the Republic of Mordovia, and the Republic of Tatarstan. The review presents the results of epizootiological monitoring. For the purpose of forecasting and differentiating the areas by the level of incidence, epidemiological zoning of the entities of the Russian Federation was carried out based on the value of the potential epidemic risk indicator. Six groups of territories have been identified: those with an extremely high predicted risk, those with high, with above-average, average, low, and with minimal risk. Six regions are classified as having an extremely high prognostic risk of HFRS infection, including the Republic of Bashkortostan, the Republic of Mordovia, the Republic of Tatarstan, the Udmurt Republic, the Chuvash Republic, and the Yaroslavl Region.

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