Cholera: Assessment of Epidemiological Situation on Cholera around the World and in Russia in 2008–2017. Forecast for 2018

The trend of morbidity reduction at an average annual rate of 1.113 % in 2017 (in comparison to 2008) continues. The tendency of intensive monthly cholera incidence growth around the world in 2017 in relation to 2015 and 2016 is established. 25 countries with 70 endemic areas and 11734 imported cases of cholera onto different continents with predominance of interstate carrying of infection in Asia were identified. In Russia in 2008, 2010, 2012 and 2014 cholera importations from India have been registered. V. cholerae O1 biovar El Tor ctxA–tcpA–, ctxA–tcpA+, V. cholerae O139 ctxA– and tcpA– and singular V. cholerae O1 biovar El tor ctxA+tcpA+ strains were isolated from surface water bodies. INDEL typing of 242 V. cholerae O1 strains, isolated from environmental objects (2014–2017), provided the data which confirmed their belonging to common cluster of V. cholerae O1 ctxA–tcpA+. Along with genetic diversity of V. cholerae O1 ctxA–tcpA–, several strains of the same or closely related genotypes in some regions were isolated every year. For the first time ever the algorithm for risk of epidemic process activation assessment in case of cholera in Russia, taking into account the various factors (conditions), their gradation and expert scores, has been developed for the prediction. The forecast for cholera at the global level and in Russia for 2018 is unfavorable.

cholera, epidemiological situation, importation, endemic areas, V. cholerae O1, V. cholerae O139, forecast

1. Vodop’yanov A.S., Vodop’yanov S.O., Oleynikov I.P., Mishan’kin B.N., Kruglikov V.D., Arkhangel’skaya I.V., Zubkova D.A., Ezhova M.I. [INDEL- and VNTR-typing of Vibrio cholerae strains, isolated in 2013 from environmental objects in the territory of the Russian Federation]. Zdor. Naselen. Sreda Obit. 2015; 5(266):41–4.

2. Vodop’yanov A.S., Vodop’yanov S.O., Oleynikov I.P., Mishan’kin B.N. [INDEL-typing of Vibrio cholerae strains]. Epidemiol. Infek. Bol. 2017; 4(22): 195–200.

3. [International Health Regulations (2005)]. World Health Organization. Geneva; 2006. 79 p.

4. Moskvitina E.A., Tyuleneva E.G., Samorodova A.V., Kruglikov V.D., Titova S.V., Ivanova S.M., Kovaleva T.V., Anisimova G.B. Epidemiological Situation on Cholera across the Globe and in the Russian Federation in 2007– 2016. Forecast for 2017]. Probl. Osobo Opasn. Infek. 2017, 1:13–20. DOI: 10.21055/0370-1069-2017-1-13-20.

5. Onishchenko G.G., Belyaev E.N., Moskvitina E.A., Rezaikin V.I., Lomov Yu.M., Medinsky G.M. [Cholera in Dagestan: Past and Present]. Rostov-on-Don: “Poligrafist”; 1995. 120 p.

6. Onishchenko G.G., Moskvitina E.A., Kruglikov V.D., Titova S.V., Adamenko O.L., Vodop’yanov A.S., Vodop’yanov S.O. [Epidemiological surveillance over cholera in Russia during the seventh pandemic]. Bulletin of the Russian Academy of Medical Sciences. 2015; 70(2):249–56.

7. Pokrovsky V.I., Onishchenko G.G. [Relevant Problems of Cholera]. M.; 2000. 384 p.

8. Pokrovsky V.I., editor. [Cholera in USSR during the Seventh Pandemic]. M.: “Meditsina”. 2000. 472 p.

9. Savilov E.D., Mamontova L.M., Astaf’ev V.A., Zhdanova S.N. [Application of Statistical Methods in Epidemiological Analysis]. M.: “MEDpress-infrom”; 2004. 112 p.

10. Cheldyshova N.B., Smirnova N.I., Zadnova S.P., Krasnov Ya. M., Kritsky A.A., Boiro M.I. [Molecular-genetic properties of Vibrio cholerae strains biovar El Tor, circulating on the African continent]. Mol. Genet. Mikrobiol. Virusol. 2017; 1:12–9.

11. Cholera: global surveillance summary, 2008. Wkly Epidem. Rec. 2009; 84(31):309–2.

12. Cholera, 2009. Wkly Epidem. Rec. 2010; 85(31):293–308.

13. Cholera, 2010. Wkly Epidem. Rec. 2011; 86(31):325–40.

14. Cholera, 2011. Wkly Epidem. Rec. 2012; 87(31):289–304.

15. Cholera, 2012. Wkly Epidem. Rec. 2013; 88(31):321–6.

16. Cholera, 2013. Wkly Epidem. Rec. 2014; 89(31):345–56.

17. Cholera, 2014. Wkly Epidem. Rec. 2015; 90(40):517–29.

18. Cholera, 2015. Wkly Epidem. Rec. 2016; 91(38):433–440.

19. Cholera, 2016. Wkly Epidem. Rec. 2017; 92(36):521–536.

20. Cholera, Diarrhea & Dysentery Update (01-137): ASIA (YEMEN) [Internet]. 29 Dec 2016 – 25 Dec 2017. Archive Number: 20170105.474207520171227.5523714. Available from: http://www.promedmail.org.

21. Cholera, Diarrhea & Dysentery Update (1): Asia (YEMEN) WHO [Internet]. 1 Jan 2017. Archive Number: 20170105.4742075. Available from: http://www.promedmail.org.

22. Cholera, Diarrhea & Dysentery Update (9): Africa [Internet]. 13 Mar 2017. Archive Number: 20170313.4898254. Available from: http://www.promedmail.org.

23. Cholera, Diarrhea & Dysentery Update (11): Africa, Asia [Internet]. 2 Apr 2017. Archive Number: 20170402.4942849. Available from: http:// www.promedmail.org.

24. Cholera, Diarrhea & Dysentery Update (20): Africa, Americas [Internet]. 5 May 2017. Archive Number: 20170505.5015480 Available from: http://www.promedmail.org.

25. Cholera, Diarrhea & Dysentery Update (24): Africa, Asia [Internet]. 10 May 2017. Archive Number: 20170510.5026111. Available from: http:// www.promedmail.org.

26. Cholera, Diarrhea & Dysentery Update (29): Asia (YEMEN) [Internet]. 17 May 2017. Archive Number: 20170517.5043339. Available from: http://www.promedmail.org.

27. Cholera, Diarrhea & Dysentery Update (44): Asia (YEMEN) [Internet]. 3 Jun 2017. Archive Number: 20170603.5081754. Available from: http://www.promedmail.org.

28. Cholera, Diarrhea & Dysentery Update (76): Africa [Internet]. 27 Jul 2017. Archive Number: 20170727.5209397 Available from: http://www.promedmail.org.

29. Cholera, Diarrhea & Dysentery Update (78): Africa [Internet]. 30 Jul 2017. Archive Number: 20170730.5215414. Available from: http://www.promedmail.org.

30. Cholera, Diarrhea & Dysentery Update (82): Africa [Internet]. 9 Aug 2017. Archive Number: 20170809.5238710. Available from: http:// www.promedmail.org.

31. Cholera, Diarrhea & Dysentery Update (92): Saudi Arabia (Jizan) expatriates, request for information [Internet]. 1 Sep 2017. Archive Number: 20170901.5289839. Available from: http://www.promedmail.org.

32. Cholera, Diarrhea & Dysentery Update (95): Africa, Asia [Internet]. 6 Sep 2017. Archive Number: 20170906.5296768. Available from: http:// www.promedmail.org.

33. Cholera, Diarrhea & Dysentery Update (98): Africa, Asia [Internet]. 14 Sep 2017. Archive Number: 20170914.5300906. Available from: http:// www.promedmail.org.

34. Cholera, Diarrhea & Dysentery Update (100): ASIA (YEMEN) [Internet]. 18 Sep. 2017. Archive Number: 20170919.5326212. Available from: http://www.promedmail.org.

35. Cholera, Diarrhea & Dysentery Update (118): Africa, Asia [Internet]. 15 Oct 2017. Archive Number: 20171015.5376068. Available from: http://www.promedmail.org.

36. Cholera, Diarrhea & Dysentery Update (125): Africa [Internet]. 31 Oct 2017. Archive Number: 20171031.5416115. Available from: http://www.promedmail.org.

37. Cholera, Diarrhea & Dysentery Update (137): Asia (YEMEN) [Internet]. 27 Dec 2017. Archive Number: 20171227.5523714. Available from: http://www.promedmail.org.

38. Cholera Prevention, Control and Elimination. A Policy Brief by the initiative against Diarrheal and Enteric Diseases in Asia. (Cited 12 May 2016). http://www.idea-asia.info/index.php/component/search/?searchword=policy+brief&ordering=&searchphrase=all.

39. Das M.M., Bhotra T., Zala D., Singh D.V. Phenotypic and genetic characteristics of Vibrio cholerae O1 carrying Haitian ctxB and attributes of classical and El Tor biotypes isolated from Silvassa, India. J. Med. Microbiol. 2016; 65(8):720–8.

40. Fazil M.H., Bhanumathi R., Pandey H.P., Singh D.V. Characterization of Vibrio cholerae O139 belonging to multiple ribotypes and isolated from diarrhoeal patients in Kerala, southern India. Infect. Genet. Evol. 2011 Mar;11(2):454–9. DOI: 10.1016/j.meegid.2010.12.008.

41. Garrine M., Mandomando I., Vubil D., Nhampossa T., Acacio S., Li S., Paulson J.N., Almeida M., Thomson N.R., Alonso P., Stine O.C. Minimal genetic change in Vibrio cholerae in Mozambique over time: Multilocus variable number tandem repeat analysis and whole genome sequencing. PloS Negl. Trop Dis. 2017; 11(6):e0005671. DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0005671.

42. Imamura D., Morita M., Sekizuka T., Mizuno T., Takemura T., Yamashiro T., Chowdhury G., Pazhani G.P., Mukhopadhyay A.K., Ramamurthy T., Miyoshi S.I., Kuroda M., Shinoda S. Comparative genome analysis of VSP-II and SNPs reveals heterogenic variation in contemporary strains of Vibrio cholerae O1 isolated from cholera patients in Kolkata, India. PLoS Negl. Trop. Dis. 2017; 11(2):e0005386. DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0005386.

43. Kachwamba Y., Mohammed A.A., Lukupulo H., Urio L., Majigo M., Mosha F., Matonya M., Kishimba R., Mghamba J., Lusekelo J., Nyanga S., Almeida M., Li S., Domman D., Massele S.Y., Stine O.C. Genetic characterization of Vibrio cholerae O1 isolates from outbreaks between 2011 and 2015 in Tanzania. BMC Infect. Dis. 2017; 17(1):157. DOI: 10.1186/s12879017-2252-9.

44. Ngwa M.C., Masalla T., Esemu S., Fumoloh F.F., Kracalik I., Cella E., Alam M.T., Akoachere J., Liang S., Salemi M., Morris J.G., Ali A., Ndip L.M. Genetic studies of Vibrio cholerae in South West Cameroon – A phylogenetic analysis of isolates from the 2010–2011 epidemic. PLOS Currents Outbreaks. 2016 Aug 12. Edition 1. DOI: 10.1371/currents.outbreaks.13b4e5e36a5c0831a1663fbdb5713fe9.

45. Pena E.S., Bwire G., Dzotsi E., Bonnet M.C., Hessel L. New momentum in prevention, control and elimination of cholera in Africa: priority actions identified by affected countries. Weekly Epidemiol. Rec. 2016; 91(24):305–14.

46. Ranjbar R., Sadeghy J., Shokri Moghadam M., Bakhshi B. Multilocus variable number tandem repeat analysis of Vibrio cholerae isolates from 2012 to 2013 cholera outbreaks in Iran. Microb. Pathog. 2016; 97:84–8.

47. Simpson E.H. Measurement of diversity. Nature (London). 1949; 163(148):668

48. Tamura K., Peterson D., Peterson N., Stecher G., Nei M., Kumar S. MEGA5: molecular evolutionary genetics analysis using maximum likelihood, evolutionary distance, and maximum parsimony methods. Mol. Biol. Evol. 2011; 28:2731–9. DOI: 10.1093/molbev/msr121.

49. URL: http://www.dsesu.gov.ua/ua/dses-ua/novyny/item/2175-vypadok-zakhvoriuvannia-na-kholeru-u-melitopoli? (Cited 27 Jul 2016).

50. Weill Fr.-X., Domman D., Njamkepo E., Tarr C., Rauzier J., Fawal N., Keddy K.H., Salje H., Moore S., Mukhopadhyay A.K., Bercion R., Luquero, F.J., Ngandjio A., Dosso M., Monakhova E., Garin B., Bouchier C., Pazzani C., Mutreja A., Grunow R., Sidikou F., Bonte L., Breurec S., Damian M., Njanpop-Lafourcade B.-M., Sapriel G., Page A.-L., Hamze M., Henkens M., Chowdhury G., Menge M., Koeck J.-L., Fournier J.-M., Dougan G., Patrick A.D., Grimont, Parkhill J., Holt K.E., Piarroux R., Ramamurthy Th., Quilici M.-L., Thomson N.R. Genomic history of the seventh pandemic of cholera in Africa. Sciense. 2017; 358:785–9. DOI: 10.1126/science.aad5901.