Preview

Problems of Particularly Dangerous Infections

Advanced search

Evaluation of Probability of Plague Epizooties Detection at the Minimal Level of Epizootic Process Intensity Measured Using Its Modeling

https://doi.org/10.21055/0370-1069-2011-2(108)-19-21

Abstract

Using model of plague epizootic process in great gerbils (Rhombomys opimus) settlements, authors showed that plague epizooty could develop at low level of epizootic contact. In this case the size of epizootic site and the number of infected colonies were expected to be insufficient to detect epizooty by standard epizootiologic examination.

Keywords


616.981.452:619:616.9-036.2

About the Author

V. M. Dubyanskii
Stavropol Research Anti-Plague Institute
Russian Federation


References

1. Burdelov L.A. [Sources, reasons and aftermaths of crisis in plague epizootiology]. Karantin. Zoonoz. Inf. Kazakhstan. 2001; 3:20–5.

2. Grabovskii V.I. [Cellular automates as simple models of complex systems]. Usp. Sovrem. Biol. 1995; 115(4):412–8.

3. Dubyanskii V.M., Abdulina V.Z., Klassovskii N.P., Aikimbaev A.M., Pole S.B., Temiralieva G.A. et al. [Experience of electronic data base forma- tion on the basis of primary documentation of epidemiologic teams]. Karantin. Zoonoz. Inf. Kazakhstan. 2001; 3:299–301.

4. Dubyanskii V.M., Burdelov L.A. [Computer model of plague epizoot- ic process in great gerbils (Rhombomys opimus) settlements: description and adequacy testing]. Zool. Zh. 2010; 89(1):79–87.

5. Litvin V.Yu., Karulin B.E., Vodomorin N.A., Okhotskii Yu.V. [Radioisotope modeling of epizootic situations and stochastic model of tula- remia epizooty in stack]. In: [Fauna and Ecology of Rodents]. M.: Izd. MGU; 1980. N 14. P. 63–87.

6. Raifa G. [Analysis of Solutions]. M.: Nauka; 1977. 407 p.

7. Soldatkin I.S., Rodnikovskii V.B., Rudenchik Yu.V. [Experience of statistic modeling of plague epizootic process]. Zool. Zh. 1973; 52(5):751–6.

8. Soldatkin I.S. [About some techniques of calculation of probabil- ity of plague epizooties detection during epizootiologic examination]. Probl. Osobo Opasn. Infek. 1970; 1(11):3–5.

9. Soldatkin I.S., Rudenchik Yu.V. [Some questions of plague enzooty as a form of existence of autoregulating system “rodent – flea – agent]. In: [Fauna and Ecology of Rodents]. M.: Izd. MGU; 1971. N 10. P. 5–29.


Review

For citations:


Dubyanskii V.M. Evaluation of Probability of Plague Epizooties Detection at the Minimal Level of Epizootic Process Intensity Measured Using Its Modeling. Problems of Particularly Dangerous Infections. 2011;(2(108)):19-21. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.21055/0370-1069-2011-2(108)-19-21

Views: 528


Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.


ISSN 0370-1069 (Print)
ISSN 2658-719X (Online)