Epidemiological and Epizootic Situation on Plague in the Russian Federation and Forecast for Its Development for 2020–2025

Objective of the investigation was to assess epidemiological and epizootiological conditions in natural plague foci of the Russian Federation, neighboring states and foreign countries in 2019. Negative effect of the current climate warming on the state of parasitic systems of natural foci with circulation of plague microbe of the main subspecies, medieval biovar, phylogenetic branch 2.MED1 is emphasized. In 2019, local plague epizooties were registered in the territory of two (Gorno-Altai high-mountain and Tuva mountain) out of 11 natural plague foci of the Russian Federation. The total area of epizooty covered 2248.5 km² . All in all, 31 cultures of Y. pestis of the main subspecies, antique biovar, phylogenetic branch 4.ANT and 5 cultures of Altai biovar, central-asian subspecies, phylogenetic branch 0.PE4a were isolated. The forecast for continuing tense epidemiological situation, both for 2020 and for 2021–2025, has been substantiated for natural foci with circulation of the main subspecies of antique biovar, phyologenetic branch 4.ANT: Gorno-Altai high-mountain and Tuva mountain ones. In the remaining nine natural foci in the territory of the Russian Federation epizootic manifestations of plague in 2020 are highly improbable. This prognosis is an indication to optimize the deployment of human and logistical resources of plague control institutions through concentrated preventive activities in the territories of epizootically active natural plague foci. Otlined is the necessity to put a new enhanced classification of Y. pestis into practice.

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