Universal Local Epidemic Model and Its Usage in the Assessment of Novosibirsk Region Resource Preparedness to a Bioterrorist Attack
https://doi.org/10.21055/0370-1069-2014-4-21-24
Abstract
Objective of the study is to substantiate the possibility to assess local/regional resource capacity needed for a large-scale epidemic response as concerns emerging infectious diseases caused by pathogenic agents of particularly dangerous infections, such as smallpox, anthrax, plague, and Ebola, Marburg, Lassa, Crimean-Congo fevers. Investigations are conducted using a designed at the SRC VB “Vector” universal local epidemic/outbreak (developing within a closed population) model. The results of epidemic dynamics modeling suggest that in case of mass infection of the population in the Novosibirsk Region its resources are well sufficient for tularemia, anthrax, and Marburg and Crimean-Congo fever outbreak control. Response measures for smallpox, plague, Ebola and Lassa fever epidemic control will require additional large-scale federal support.
About the Authors
L. F. Nizolenko
State Research Centre of Virology and Biotechnology “Vector”
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
A. G. Bachinsky
State Research Centre of Virology and Biotechnology “Vector”
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
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Review
For citations:
Nizolenko L.F., Bachinsky A.G. Universal Local Epidemic Model and Its Usage in the Assessment of Novosibirsk Region Resource Preparedness to a Bioterrorist Attack. Problems of Particularly Dangerous Infections. 2014;(4):21-24. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.21055/0370-1069-2014-4-21-24
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