Epizootic Activity of Natural Plague Foci in the Russian Federation in 2012 and Prognosis for the Year of 2013
https://doi.org/10.21055/0370-1069-2013-1-5-10
Abstract
Integrated are the data on the number of major carriers and vectors as well as the epizootic activity of natural foci of plague of different types in the territory of Russia in 2012. Submitted is the short-term forecast of epizootic situation for 2013. Analyzed are the reasons of current low epizootic activity of plain natural foci of plague. The role of climatic factors in the development of long inter-epizootic periods in plague natural foci in the Pre-Caucasus, Pre-Caspian regions and Siberia is discussed. Assessed is the change of potential epidemiologic hazard of plague-enzootic territories under the current warming of climate. The long-term forecast of epizootic activity of natural plague foci for the period of up to 2020 is substantiated.
Keywords
природные очаги чумы,
эпизоотическая активность,
численность носителей и переносчиков чумы,
изменение климата,
долгосрочный и краткосрочный эпизоотологический прогноз,
natural plague foci,
epizootic activity,
number of carriers and transmitters of plague,
climate change,
short-term and long-term epizootiological forecast
About the Authors
N. V. Popov
Russian Research Anti-Plague Institute “Microbe”
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
V. E. Bezsmertny
Plague Control Center
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
V. P. Toporkov
Russian Research Anti-Plague Institute “Microbe”
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
A. A. Kuznetsov
Russian Research Anti-Plague Institute “Microbe”
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
A. N. Matrosov
Russian Research Anti-Plague Institute “Microbe”
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
T. V. Knyazeva
Russian Research Anti-Plague Institute “Microbe”
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
V. P. Popov
Plague Control Center
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
D. B. Verzhutsky
Irkutsk Research Anti-Plague Institute of Siberia and Far East
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
V. M. Korzun
Irkutsk Research Anti-Plague Institute of Siberia and Far East
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
E. V. Chipanin
Irkutsk Research Anti-Plague Institute of Siberia and Far East
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
V. M. Dubyansky
Stavropol Research Anti-Plague Institute
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
O. V. Maletskaya
Stavropol Research Anti-Plague Institute
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
M. P. Grigoryev
Stavropol Research Anti-Plague Institute
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
S. V. Balakhonov
Irkutsk Research Anti-Plague Institute of Siberia and Far East
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
A. N. Kulichenko
Stavropol Research Anti-Plague Institute
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
V. V. Kutyrev
Russian Research Anti-Plague Institute “Microbe”
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
References
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2. Popov N.V., Bezsmertny V.E., Toporkov V.P., Udovikov A.I., Karavaeva T.B., Popov V.P., Ivanova S.M., Kutyrev V.V. [Reasons of low epizootic activity of natural foci of plague in Russia at the beginning of XXI century]. Zh. Microbiol. Epidemiol. Immunobiol. 2011; 5:23–6.
3. Popov N.V., Bezsmetrny V.E., Matrosov A.N., Kuznetsov A.A., Knyazeva T.V., Popov V.P., Verzhutsky D.B., Nemchenko L.S., Shilova L.D., Dubyansky V.M., Maletskaya O.V., Toporkov V.P., Toporkov A.V., Adamov A.K., Kutyrev V.V. [Epizootic activity of natural plague foci in the territory of the Russian Federation in 2011, and prognosis for 2012]. Probl. Osobo Opasn. Infek. 2012; (111):5–10.
4. Kutyrev V.V., Eroshenko G.A., Popov N.V., Vidyaeva N.A., Konnov N.P. Molecular mechanisms of interactions of plague causative agents with invertebrates. Mol. Genetics, Microbiol. and Virol. 2009; 24(4):169–76.
Review
For citations:
Popov N.V., Bezsmertny V.E., Toporkov V.P., Kuznetsov A.A., Matrosov A.N., Knyazeva T.V., Popov V.P., Verzhutsky D.B., Korzun V.M., Chipanin E.V., Dubyansky V.M., Maletskaya O.V., Grigoryev M.P., Balakhonov S.V., Kulichenko A.N., Kutyrev V.V. Epizootic Activity of Natural Plague Foci in the Russian Federation in 2012 and Prognosis for the Year of 2013. Problems of Particularly Dangerous Infections. 2013;(1):5-10. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.21055/0370-1069-2013-1-5-10
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