Impact Assessment of the Response Measures to Local Epidemics Induced by the Agents of Particularly Dangerous Infections: Isolation

Abstract

The paper discusses the opportunities of using universal model of local, evolving within a closed population, epidemics/outbreaks, developed at the premises of SRC VB “Vector”, for investigations and assessment of the impact of various resource limitations on the countermeasure effectiveness, and in particular isolation of a patient and contact tracing and isolation. Based on the epidemic dynamics analysis for a number of infections such as smallpox, anthrax, pneumonic and bubonic plague, hemorrhagic Ebola, Marburg, Lassa, Crimean-Congo fevers, it is demonstrated that occurrence of resource limitations of isolation can have a significant impact on the scale of epidemic aftermaths. Moreover, the outset of response measures takes a severe effect, as one of the important for localization of arthropod-borne infection factors is quarantine, alongside with isolation. The computer based software model is available at http://vector-epimod.ru