Review of the Epidemiological Situation on Ixodidae Tick-Borne Borrelioses in the Russian Federation in 2010–2024 and Forecast for 2025

The aim of the review was to characterize the epidemiological situation on Ixodidae tick-borne borreliosis (ITBB) in the constituent entities of the Russian Federation in 2024, to forecast the development of the ITBB epidemic process in 2025 based on the analysis of its trends over the period of 2010–2024 with the exception of 2020–2021 – the period of the COVID-19 pandemic. An assessment of the epidemic potential of ITBB in Russia and other countries, where there is an increase in the activity of foci and an expansion of the range of pathogens, is provided. An analysis of the incidence of ITBB in the Russian Federation in 2024 has been conducted in comparison with the average long-term indicators for 2010–2019. In 2024, a total of 7 365 cases of ITBB were registered in the Russian Federation. The morbidity rate of ITBB in 2024 was 4.84 per 10 000 population, which is statistically significantly lower than the similar figure for 2023 (6.25 per 100,000 population), however it lies within the range of average long-term values between 2010 and 2019 (4.99 per 100,000 population). In 2024, the indicator in the majority of the federal districts (Northwestern Federal District, Volga Federal District, Ural Federal District, Siberian Federal District, and Far Eastern Federal District) either did not reach or remained within the average long-term incidence rates of ITBB observed in 2010–2019. In contrast, the Central, Southern, and North-Caucasian Federal Districts reported ITBB incidence rates that were above the mentioned long-term averages. The epidemiological situation regarding ITBB in the Russian Federation remains tense. Based on projected ITBB incidence rates, its decrease is expected in the Central, Northwestern, and Volga Federal Districts in 2025. Effective control of the ITBB epidemic situation is possible provided that the volume of preventive measures is maintained, and zoological-entomological monitoring of the activity and structure of natural foci is strengthened.

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