Differentiation of the Southern Part of the Transboundary Volga-Ural Sandy Natural Plague Focus by the Frequency of Epizootic Manifestations Using Circular Extrapolation

The Volga-Ural sandy natural plague focus is a transboundary one. Its greater part (66,036 km² ) is located on the territory of two regions of the Republic of Kazakhstan, the smaller part (8,625 km² ) is on the territory of the Russian Federation. The aim of the work was to conduct epizootiological differentiation of the southern part of the Volga-Ural sandy plague focus. Materials and methods. Retrospective data from epizootiological survey of the focus conducted by the Astrakhan (Russian Federation) and Atyrau (Republic of Kazakhstan) Plague Control Stations were used. The coordinates (latitude and longitude) of 865 sites where the plague agent was detected over the period of 1936–2005 were determined. Using the method of circular extrapolation of each point with plague manifestations, annual maps of epizootic areas were drawn. By successive overlay of the created electronic maps, the dislocation of the activity cores of the natural focus and the zones of short-term registration of the epizootic process were revealed, and their quantitative characteristics were determined. Results and discussion. Identification of a detailed configuration of the most active zones of manifestation of the epizootic process has significant prognostic value in the search for plague-infected animals, especially during inter-epizootic periods. The cartographic model of differentiation of the focal territory by activity and duration of epizootics is intended for substantiated planning of epidemiological surveillance measures, prevention and further study of the issues of plague enzootics. The obtained data can be used for epidemiological zoning of the territory as regards plague.

1. Kuznetsov A.A., Kutyrev V.V., Matrosov A.N., Toporkov V.P. Improving monitoring of natural plague foci based on the analysis of ecological and epizootiological patterns of their functioning. Problemy Osobo Opasnykh Infektsii [Problems of Particularly Dangerous Infections]. 2004; (2):12–6.

2. Kuznetsov A.A., Porshakov A.M., Matrosov A.N., Sintsov V.K., Osipov V.P., Sandzhiev V.B.-Kh. [Differentiation of the Precaspian sandy plague focus by the frequency of epizootic manifestations]. Problemy Osobo Opasnykh Infektsii [Problems of Particularly Dangerous Infections]. 2012; (3):15–9.

3. Porshakov A.M., Kuznetsov A.A., Matrosov A.N., Bulychev V.P., Larin V.V. Volga-Ural sandy plague focus differentiation against epizootic manifestations by means of circular extrapolation. Problemy Osobo Opasnykh Infektsii [Problems of Particularly Dangerous Infections]. 2013; (4):33–6.

4. Onishchenko G.G., Kutyrev V.V., editors. Natural Plague Foci in the Territory of Caucasus, Caspian Sea Region, Central Asia and Siberia. Moscow: ‘Medicine”; 2004. 192 p.

5. Popova A.Yu., Kutyrev V.V., editors. Ensuring Epidemiological Well-Being in Natural Plague Foci in the CIS Countries and Mongolia under Modern Conditions. Izhevsk: “Print”; 2018. 336 p.

6. Shevchenko V.L., Grigor’ev I.S., Tanitovsky V.A., Shevchenko G.V., Grazhdanov A.K., Nevolnikov P.V., Kusainov B.N., Terekhova L.I., Medzykhovsky G.A. Epizooty of plague at the northern end of the Volga-Ural sandy natural plague focus in 1989-1991. Problemy Osobo Opasnykh Infektsii [Problems of Particularly Dangerous Infections]. 1994; (4):90-100.

7. Grazhdanov A.K. General analysis and current epizootic state of the Volga-Ural sandy natural plague focus. Problemy Osobo Opasnykh Infektsii [Problems of Particularly Dangerous Infections]. 2002; (1):46-51.

8. Shevchenko V.L., Kaimashnikov V.M., Andreeva T.K. On the mechanism of persistance of natural plague foci in the VolgaUral sands. Zoologichesky Zhurnal [Zoological Journal]. 1969; 48(2):270–83.

9. Burdelov A.S., Kasenova A.K. Contacts of the Isabelline wheatear and its specific fleas with the plague agent (review). Karantinnye i Zoonoznye Infektsii v Kazakhstane [Quarantine and Zoonotic Infections in Kazakhstan]. 2001; (4):18–20.

10. Khamzin T.Kh., Khamzin S.Kh., Radchenko G.A., Kausov S.G. On the activation of the Volga-Ural sandy plague focus after a 20-year inter-epizootic period. Karantinnye i Zoonoznye Infektsii v Kazakhstane [Quarantine and Zoonotic Infections in Kazakhstan]. 1999; (1):240–1.

11. Khamzin S.Kh., Khamzin T.Kh., Radchenko G.A., Balashov A.A., Bimaganov Zh.G. Peculiarities of plague epizooty in the Volga-Ural sandy focus at the present stage. Problemy Osobo Opasnykh Infektsii [Problems of Particularly Dangerous Infections]. 2001; (2):140–43.

12. Tanitovsky V.A., Gabbasov A.A., Aitimova A.G., Kanatkalieva Zh.A. The impact of climate warming on the fauna of small gerbils in the Volga-Ural sandy plague focus. Osobo Opasnye Infektsii i Biologicheskaya Bezopasnost’. [Especially Dangerous Infections and Biological Safety]. 2021; (1):40–3.

13. Medzykhovsky G.A., Parfenov A.V., Parshin B.M., Grazhdanov A.K., Andryushchenko V.V., Tanitovsky V.A. To the characteristics of the plague epizootic of 1989–1998 in the northeast of the Volga-Ural sands. Karantinnye i Zoonoznye Infektsii v Kazakhstane [Quarantine and Zoonotic Infections in Kazakhstan]. 1999; (1):101–4.

14. Bidashko F.G., Grazhdanov A.K., Satybaev S.M., Parfenov A.V., Berdenov M.Zh., Kuanyshkalieva N.N., Parshin B.M., Kabdesheva K.K., Kabdesh T.G. On the seasonality of plague epizooties in the north of the Volga-Ural sandy focus. Karantinnye i Zoonoznye Infektsii v Kazakhstane [Quarantine and Zoonotic Infections in Kazakhstan]. 2003; (1):31–35.

15. Grazhdanov A.K., Ayazbaev T.Z., Zholshorinov A.Zh., Karagoishieva S.K., Bidashko F.G., Andryushchenko A.V. Epizootic and epidemic manifestations of dangerous infections in the West of Kazakhstan under modern conditions. In: [Onishchenko G.G., Kutyrev V.V., editors. Advanced Technologies in Improving Measures to Prevent and Respond to Public Health Emergency Situations of Sanitary-Epidemiological Nature: Proceedings of the XI Interstate Scientific and Practical Conference (October 16-17, 2012, Saratov). Saratov: “Privolzhskoe” Publishing House; 2012. P. 72-4.

16. Khamzin T.Kh., Maikanov N.S., Saraev F.A., Kozulina I.G., Bashmakov A.A., Moldagalieva B.N., Bashmakova A.A. Review of plague epizootics in the southern part of the Volga-Ural sandy focus. In: [Proceedings of the Jubilee International Scientific and Practical Conference of the Ural Plague Control Station, 1914-2014]. Uralsk; 2014. P. 260-2.

17. Parfenov A.V., Parfenova E.A. On the relationship between the number of small gerbil fleas and epizootic manifestations in the north of the Volga-Ural sands. Karantinnye i Zoonoznye Infektsii v Kazakhstane [Quarantine and Zoonotic Infections in Kazakhstan]. 2001; (3):202-5.