Long-Term Dynamics of Epidemic Manifestations of Plague on the African Continent

In the XXI century, there has been a downward trend in the total number of cases of plague infection in Africa, North and South America, and Asia. The most unfavorable epidemiological situation was in the countries of the African region, where over 90 % of the global plague incidence was registered. The aim of this review is to analyze the spatial and temporal features of epidemic manifestations of plague on the African continent in the XX–XXI centuries. The literature data characterizing the outbreak and sporadic incidence of plague in African countries in the twentieth and twenty-first centuries are summarized. The information on the number of cases of plague infection in 1935–2024 is analyzed from a long-term perspective. A high annual incidence of plague (over 1000 cases) was recorded in the periods of 1935–1945 and 1986–2008. In 1946–1985 and 2009–2024, the total number of infections decreased significantly. It is also shown that in the first half of the past century (before 1950), cases of plague infection were registered in 25 countries located in the northern, western, eastern and southern regions of the African continent. In the second half of the last century, the number of African countries with cases of plague decreased to 20, and at the beginning of this century – to 9. It has been substantiated that in 1900–2024 the most persistent epidemic manifestations took place in the countries of East Africa and Madagascar. The noted stability of active epidemic manifestations in the natural and natural-anthropourgic plague foci is explained by a combination of ecological, epizootiological, and epidemiological factors that ensure the constant circulation of epidemiologically significant Yersinia pestis lineages (1.ANT, 1.ORI).

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