Forecasting the Consequences of the Introduction of Mpox Virus into Russia

The cessation of vaccination after the eradication of smallpox led to a decrease in the level of herd immunity of the world’s population. Currently, the risk of national and international spread of Mpox is assessed as “high”. The introduction of MPXV clade 1b can be carried out by land or air transport by citizens of foreign countries or Russian tourists returning from a vacation abroad.
The aim of the study was to predict the consequences of the introduction of MPXV clade 1b into the territory of Russia.
Materials and methods. The data from published foreign and domestic scientific papers on the spread of Mpox, the values of average herd immunity and average basic reproductive number, as well as data characterizing the duration of post-vaccination immunity against orthopoxvirus infections were used.
Results and discussion. A forecast of the outbreak development as a result of the introduction of MPXV clade 1b into the territory of Russia in the absence of anti-epidemic measures has been made for three scenarios: a single imported case taking into account the size of the immune stratum of the population, a household outbreak, an outbreak in a closed community. The results of the forecast allow us to conclude that the introduction of MPXV clade 1b into the territory of Russia may lead to the emergence of a local or municipal emergency. In any of the considered scenarios, after the isolation of patients and those who have been in contact with them, the outbreak will cease.

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