Epidemiological Situation on Cholera in the World and in the Russian Federation, Forecast for 2026

The aim of the work was to analyze the epidemiological situation on cholera in the world and in Russia and to make its forecast for 2026. Proactive epidemiological surveillance data showed that over the period of 2016–2025 there was an upward trend in cholera incidence worldwide: 5,474,013 cases were documented in 91 countries. The proportion of patients was distributed among countries as follows: Yemen (53.4 %), Afghanistan (11.7 %), Democratic Republic of the Congo (6.3 %), Nigeria (4.7 %), Somalia (3.2 %), South Sudan (2.5 %), Sudan (2.5 %), and Haiti (2.4 %). In 2025, 42 countries reported 589,571 cases and 8,140 deaths (5.1 % more than in 2024). The increase in cholera cases in 2025, compared to 2024, amounted to 5.12 %. Population migration remained the main risk-forming factor for the spread of cholera to different countries. In the Russian Federation, monitoring of labor migration was introduced with the organization of medical observation of arriving persons for seven days after arrival from cholera affected countries. As a result of monitoring surface water bodies in 2025, 50 non-toxigenic strains of Vibrio cholerae O1 circulating in the territory of the Russian Federation and belonging to different genetic lines were isolated. A decrease in the number of acute intestinal infections was noted from 13 (2024) to 5 (2025), caused by non-toxigenic V. cholerae nonO1/nonO139. Forecast for 2026: the risk of cholera importation persists due to the expected increase in the intensity of labor migration. Registration of acute intestinal infections and extra-intestinal infections caused by non-toxigenic strains of V. cholerae nonO1/nonO139 is probable. Detection of non-toxigenic strains of V. cholerae O1 and their clonal complexes circulating in water bodies will continue. Stable epidemiological situation on cholera in the Russian Federation is predicted for 2026.

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