EPIDEMIOLOGICAL SITUATION ON CHOLERA ACROSS THE GLOBE AND IN THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION IN 2007–2016. FORECAST FOR 2017

Analysis of epidemiological situation on cholera around the world has demonstrated downward trend in morbidity rates in 2016; annual average decline being 3.907 % (by reference to 2007). Comparative assessment of monthly incidence in 2015 and 2016 shows perennial registration of cholera cases in a number of African countries and in the Caribbean with up-rises in different seasons. Establishment of epidemic foci is on-going. Between 2007 and 2016, 1733 imported cases of cholera took place across the globe. Interstate import dominated in Asia. For forecast development, for the first time ever, risk assessment of epidemic process activation has been performed, taking into consideration emergency situations of varying origin, social and natural environments, using expert evaluation scores. Epidemic manifestations of cholera in the Russian Federation were characterized by import of the infection in 2008, 2010, 2012, and 2014; isolation of V. cholerae O1 biovar El Tor ctxA^– tcpA^–, ctxA⁺ and V. cholerae O139 ctxA^– and tcpA^– from surface water bodies, as well as individual V. cholerae O1 biovar El Tor сtхA⁺ tсра⁺. Worked out has been the algorithm for epidemiological investigation of causes and conditions of surface water body contamination with cholera vibrios. Cholera forecast worldwide and in Russia for the year 2017 remains unfavorable.

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