Linear Regression Models Used for the Description of Long-Term Epizootic Process in Tuvinian Natural Plague Focus (Karginsk Mezofocus)
https://doi.org/10.21055/0370-1069-2012-1(111)-43-47
Abstract
The results of modeling showed the dependence of epizootic activity in Tuvinian natural plague focus on climatic conditions (average monthly amount of precipitations in the current year and the preceding four years and temperatures in the current and the preceding three years). The multiple linear regression models were used to predict the activity of zoonosis development within a year. The models obtained by means of stepwise regression were most approximated to the natural zoonotic process. The amount of precipitations in winter months and temperature in spring and summer were of the greatest significance for epizootic activity.
Keywords
natural plague focus,
linear regression models of plague epizootics,
dependence of epizootic activity on climatic factors
616.981.452(571.52)
About the Authors
N. A. Kol
Tuvinian Institute for Complex Exploration of Natural Resources, SB of the RAS
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
A. F. Chul'dum
Tuvinian Institute for Complex Exploration of Natural Resources, SB of the RAS
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
M. G. Rostovtsev
Tuvinian Plague Control Station
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Yu. A. Kalush
Tuvinian Institute for Complex Exploration of Natural Resources, SB of the RAS
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
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Review
For citations:
Kol N.A., Chul'dum A.F., Rostovtsev M.G., Kalush Yu.A. Linear Regression Models Used for the Description of Long-Term Epizootic Process in Tuvinian Natural Plague Focus (Karginsk Mezofocus). Problems of Particularly Dangerous Infections. 2012;(1(111)):43-47. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.21055/0370-1069-2012-1(111)-43-47
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