Forecasting of Brucellosis Morbidity Rates in the Russian Federation Using Wald Method

Abstract

Objective of the study is to conduct epidemiological analysis of official statistical data on brucellosis morbidity rates over the period of 2005–2014 in different constituent entities of the Russian Federation, using Wald method. Materials and methods. Utilized were recording and reporting documents of the Federal Service for Surveillance in the Sphere of Consumers Rights Protection and Human Welfare, FBHI “Federal Center of Hygiene and Epidemiology” of the Rospotrebnadzor, and WHO information resources.
Results and conclusions. Studies of peculiarities of epidemic process development over the long-term period have allowed for identification of entities that are the most affected by the diseases. The results obtained on the morbidity rates in the Russian Federation over the period of 2005–2014 testify to the fact that first comes North Caucasian Federal District (NCFD) (62 %), next go Siberian (SbFD) (16 %) and Southern (SFD) (13 %) Federal Districts, second and third lines of the list respectively. Other regions account for 9 % of the load. The largest share of morbidity in NCFD entities belongs to the Republic of Dagestan – 62 %. Thereat, annual increment rate is 5.54 cases, which points to stabilization and some downward trend. Application of this morbidity rate prediction tool provides for in-time planning of clinical-diagnostic, prophylactic, and anti-epidemic measures in brucellosis foci. Wald method for forecasting of morbidity can be used for other infectious diseases too.